As Israel continues to consider how to respond to Iran’s massive ballistic missile attack nearly two weeks ago, former White House national security advisor John Bolton says it should take what could be the “only opportunity” to wipe out the threat posed by Iran’s nuclear program.
The Biden administration and other world leaders have urged Israel to not take any retaliatory actions that could escalate the conflict with Iran into an all-out war — including striking Iran’s nuclear facilities. But several conservative figures, including Canada’s Opposition Leader Pierre Poilievre, have said such strikes would be an appropriate response and could further weaken the Iranian regime.
In an interview with Mercedes Stephenson that aired Sunday on The West Block, Bolton, a longtime hawk on Iran who served in the Trump administration, said Israel should do all it can to ensure Iran’s next attack doesn’t involve a nuclear warhead.
“If you’re Israel, and you’ve seen in both the April attack from Iran and the Oct. 1 attack hundreds of ballistic missiles launched at you, you could have no confidence that the next time you see a ballistic missile coming from Iran, that under its nose cone it might not have a nuclear weapon,” he said.
“So how long are you willing to take that chance?”
Iran’s attack on Oct. 1 came after Israel stepped up its war against Hezbollah in Lebanon, including killing the militant group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and other senior commanders. Hezbollah receives backing from Iran, which also supports Hamas in Gaza and other proxies in the Middle East that oppose Israel.
Bolton, echoing other analysts of the region, said Iran is “scared to death” of the Israeli government after its military’s actions against Hamas and Hezbollah and knows Israel would have the backing of the U.S. in a direct war with Tehran.
That, along with the regime’s domestic struggles, puts Iran in a vulnerable position that Bolton says Israel should take advantage of.
“I think that’s the point where Israel can have the maximum impact, precisely by going after the nuclear weapons program,” he said.
“There’s no guarantee they’ll have another opportunity as good.”
Poilievre last week told reporters in Ottawa that an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities “would be a gift by the Jewish state to humanity.”
Defence Minister Bill Blair told the House of Commons defence committee Thursday that it was “reckless and irresponsible to call for attacks on nuclear facilities, which are very specifically prohibited under international humanitarian law.”
Donald Trump, who is running for president again, told a campaign event after Iran’s Oct. 1 attack that Israel should “hit the nuclear first and worry about the rest later.”
Although Iran officially has a fatwa in place against the development and use of nuclear weapons, its intelligence minister has warned that stance could change if it was “cornered,” and there are fears within the international community that Iran could still use its nuclear program to produce such a weapon relatively quickly.
Bolton was Trump’s national security advisor when Trump pulled the U.S. out of an international agreement with Iran that limited its nuclear weapons program in exchange for sanctions relief, effectively killing the pact. International assessments had said Iran was abiding by the deal before it collapsed, but has since begun enriching uranium once again.
Bolton, who long criticized the Iran deal, told Stephenson the pact “gave a false sense of security” and that he believes Iran is now “very close” to developing a nuclear weapon.
“There’s much about Iran’s program that we simply don’t know,” he said.
Bolton said Iran’s Oct. 1 attack on Israel, which involved between 180 to 200 ballistic missiles, was “the largest ballistic missile attack in world history,” and that Israel’s primary concern in the short term will be to bolster its air defence system to prevent similarly large barrages in the future.
There have been few clues as to what Israel might do next in retaliation, which Bolton said suggests the Israeli government is not keeping the U.S. in the loop.
“They’re going to make up their own mind on it,” he said.
Even if Israel forgoes an attack on nuclear sites and strikes Iran’s military or oil production facilities instead, the response could have impacts on the presidential election in November, he added.
“(U.S. President Joe Biden) would simply like to postpone any Israel action until after Nov. 5,” he said.
“I don’t think that’s going to happen, because Israel’s got a pressing need right now.”