With Joe Biden stepping down and endorsing Kamala Harris for the United States presidency, the 2024 election landscape has taken an unexpected turn.
But what do recent polls reveal about Donald Trump’s chances against his potential new competitor? The results are mixed: some polls show Democrats hold a favourable view of Harris, others suggest a tight-race between her and Trump.
Biden ended his reelection campaign on Sunday after fellow Democrats lost faith in his ability to beat Trump. The president had faced growing doubts about his reelection chances after a weak and faltering performance in a debate against Trump late last month.
“My very first decision as the party nominee in 2020 was to pick Kamala Harris as my Vice President,” Biden posted Sunday on X. “And it’s been the best decision I’ve made. Today I want to offer my full support and endorsement for Kamala to be the nominee of our party this year. Democrats — it’s time to come together and beat Trump. Let’s do this.
After Biden’s announcement, Trump took to the social media platform, Truth Social, saying, “Whoever the Left puts up now will just be more of the same.”
But if Harris does get the Democratic nomination, how will she fare? Here’s a closer look at what recent polls say.
Most Democrats on board with Harris
A July 17 poll from the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that about six in 10 Democrats believe Harris would do a good job as president. About two in 10 Democrats don’t believe she would, and another two in 10 say they don’t know enough to say.
Forty-three per cent of respondents had a favourable opinion of Harris, including 74 per cent of Democrats.
Among Republicans, 87 per cent say Harris would not make a good president.
The nationwide poll was conducted July 11 to 15, 2024.
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Another poll by YouGov found similar results.
That poll, conducted July 3 to 12, said two-thirds (66 per cent) of Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents would approve of Harris becoming the presidential nominee if Biden were to step down.
However, the poll also found that Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents, on average, had a more favourable opinion of Biden than of Harris, with 82 per cent say they have a favourable opinion of Biden whereas 75 per cent have a favourable view of Harris.
When asked who would be most likely to beat Trump at the polls, only Michelle Obama was seen as having a better chance of winning.
Trump leading over Harris
Since the attempted assassination of Trump on July 13, a CBS News poll found that Trump was up five points nationally.
The poll, conducted from July 16 to 18, suggested 51 per cent of respondents would cast their ballot for Trump, while 48 per cent would vote for Harris.
The poll also asked respondents whether Trump’s handling of his assassination attempt made them more or less likely to vote for him. Twenty-six per cent of respondents said they are more likely to consider Trump, seven per cent said they are less likely, and 67 per cent reported no change in their stance.
More Americans favour Trump
A poll from the Economist, conducted July 13 to 16, found that slightly more Americans hold a favourable opinion of Trump compared to Harris.
For Harris, 39 per cent of respondents had a favourable opinion. The highest levels of support came from Black (55 per cent) female (41 per cent) respondents.
And, 54 percent of respondents held an unfavourable opinion of Harris. This sentiment was particularly pronounced among white (59 per cent) men (56 per cent).
With Trump, the poll found 43 per cent of respondents had a favourable opinion of him. Support was strongest among white (49 per cent) men (46 per cent).
Fifty-three per cent of respondents had an unfavourable opinion of Trump. This opinion largely came from black (74 per cent) females (55 per cent).
Harris and Trump tied
A Reuters/Ipsos poll, conducted on July 16, found that Harris and Trump were tied in the polls, with each earning 44 per cent support among registered voters.
Other polls found that Harris is running head-to-head with Trump in national surveys.
In a March Fox News poll, Trump led Harris by six points and Biden by five points. And as recently as June 28, a Data for Progress poll showed the president and vice president each losing to Trump by three points.
A CNN poll conducted from June 28 to 30 found Harris within striking distance of Trump in a hypothetical matchup, with 47 per cent of registered voters supporting Trump and 45 per cent backing Harris.
Harris’ slightly stronger showing against Trump rests at least in part on broader support from women (50 per cent of female voters back Harris over Trump versus 44 per cent for Biden against Trump).