If Edmonton were to hold an election now, the city’s current mayor would be hard-pressed to win another term if the results of a new poll are any indication.
Pollster Leger conducted an online survey last month of 401 people who live in Edmonton, asking them about the direction the city is headed, issues that are important to them and how Mayor Amarjeet Sohi is doing in his role.
The results were not positive.
When asked how they felt things are going in Edmonton these days, only 22 per cent of respondents said the city was headed in the right direction, while 67 said the city is on the wrong track, and the remainder didn’t know or didn’t answer.
“Over two-thirds said the city was heading in the wrong direction. And that’s just not a good sentiment if you’re theoretically in charge of things,” said Andrew Enns, Leger executive vice-president for central Canada. He said several factors could contribute to residents feeling that way.
“I suspect it’s a confluence of a number of things. We asked people what were the issues on their mind and the issues that came forward, like housing affordability, property taxes, public safety, the economy, homelessness — these can be tough issues,” Enns said.
Leger said Edmontonians who would vote for Sohi are more likely to think Edmonton is headed in the right direction. Those over the age of 55 are more likely to think Edmonton is off on the wrong track.
Housing prices and affordability was the top concern when asked what the most important issue facing Edmonton today that respondents feel the mayor and council should be focused on.
Just over one-in-five Edmontonians, or 21 per cent, said that was their top issue. The next important issues were property taxes (14 per cent), homelessness (13 per cent), the economy (11 per cent) and crime/public safety/policing (10 per cent.)
“The current environment is probably challenging, but I would say that whatever is being done by the mayor and council currently on some of these important issues just really isn’t hitting the mark with the residents of Edmonton in terms of actually getting at some of these challenges that they perceive,” Enns said.
The poll also asked residents how they feel the mayor has done handing the issues identified as important.
Edmontonians believe Sohi is doing the best job in the areas of alternative transportation (43 per cent), condition of infrastructure (39 per cent), and ethical, honest government (39 per cent).
Leger said areas where they believe the mayor is doing the poorest job include property taxes (16 per cent) and housing prices/affordability (16 per cent).
Enns noted some of the issues are beyond the control of municipal government, such as housing affordability, where the free market and economy plays a major factor.
“In fairness to the mayor and city council, that is a tough issue and it’s certainly not an issue that they can, on their own, single-handedly address,” he said.
That said, property taxes are under the city’s control and Leger said the massive jump in recent years — in April, city council approved a 8.9 per cent property tax increase for 2024 alone — has rubbed Edmontonians the wrong way. City administration also recommended tax levy increases of 7 per cent in 2025 and 6.4 per cent in 2026.
“Property tax was the second-most identified top of mind issue that’s on the mind of voters. That hike is likely driving that and it’s likely driving some negative sentiment towards the mayor,” Enns said.
“I think at this stage of the game, they’re not getting a clear sense that that money’s going to the things they think really need to get fixed in Edmonton.”
Ward pihêsiwin Councillor Tim Cartmell said the poll results align with what he has been hearing from his southwest Edmonton constituents.
“People are looking for a clean, well-run, well-functioning city, and they’re just not seeing that and they’re frustrated,” Cartmell said, adding he feels the same way.
“Everybody’s taxes are much higher and yet it seems that the services those pay for are diminished, if they’ve changed at all. So a lot of frustration. Absolutely.”
Sohi approval rating plummets
If a municipal/city election were held tomorrow, would you vote for Mayor Amarjeet Sohi or someone else? That was the question posed to the poll respondents.
Sohi won the 2021 municipal election with 45 per cent of the vote but today, only 16 per cent of Edmontonians said they were likely to vote for the current mayor, while over two-in-five (43 per cent) said they would vote for someone else. Many were undecided — 32 per cent said they didn’t know who they would vote for.
Leger said men and Edmontonians ages 35 and older are more likely to vote for someone else, rather than Sohi. His greatest support was amongst people aged 18 to 34.
Political analyst and commentator John Brennan isn’t surprised by the poll results.
“Anecdotally, if you talk with friends and family, if you listen to talk radio — which I do because I’m a newsaholic — if you look at the letters to the editor: there’s no doubt that Edmontonians are not happy with the current mayor and the current council,” Brennan said.
People may blame the mayor for their dissatisfaction but Brennan noted it’s important to remember city council is a collective decision-making body.
Cartmell said he reluctantly voted to approve the budget but believes major changes need to be made to the city’s spending plan moving forward. He’d like to see the city’s budgeting process rebuilt entirely.
Cartmell feels there is a disconnect between what some on council and in city administration are prioritizing and what everyday Edmontonians want from their city.
“You cannot go down to city hall and represent the needs of your constituents if you don’t know what their needs are, if you don’t know what their views are, if you don’t know what their issues are. And so this poll is another way of communicating it.”
The poll results should be a wakeup call, the city councillor said.
“I think that if people are planning on being around after the next election, there’s going to need to be a real effort to earn the trust of constituents and voters back. I’m here for that challenge. I hope that some of my colleagues are too,” he said.
The current council was elected in 2021 and Brennan said the majority are politically left-leaning, which he thinks has not bode well during tough economic times.
“I don’t really think they ever took their responsibilities seriously with regards to fiscal responsibility, with regards to taxing and spending.”
Brennan said it will be a problem for the mayor and councillors when they try to seek re-election. He noted it could come down to whoever decides to run against him and where they fall on the political spectrum.
“Last time in October 2021, the small C conservative, right-of-centre vote was split between Mike Nickel, Kim Krushell and Michael Oshry – because if you add up the vote of all three of those, it was more than what Amarjeet Sohi got,” he said. “All the left-of-centre progressive voters rallied behind Amarjeet Sohi in 2021, and the conservative voters in Edmonton, that vote was split amongst three candidates.”
It’s 17 months until the next election and Sohi has not yet indicated if he intends to run again, but Brennan expects he will.
“It’s going to be a tough road ahead for him, and especially if a strong candidate like Tim Cartmell comes forward and runs against Amarjeet Sohi. And I think that’s what’s going to happen.”
Leger said it’s hard to predict if the poll results now will be reflected in the next municipal election in October 2025, because historically voter turnout has been quite low.
“There’s often a number of people that will participate in a survey, indicate a preference, but they actually won’t show up and vote. So it can be a little trickier,” Enns said.
That said, if the trend continues, Sohi could face an uphill battle if seeking reelection.
“This would be a very challenging election if these numbers were to continue for the current mayor,” Enns said. “I suspect that they’re already looking hard at what they can do in the year and a few months ahead to change the current situation.”
Sohi did not make himself available for an interview on Tuesday, but instead issued a statement.
“I chose to run for mayor at a time when Edmonton was facing economic and social pressures of a devastating pandemic, leading to an inflation and affordability crisis. This council also had to deal with years of underinvestment in the core services that Edmontonians rely on, at the same time dealing with funding cuts and downloading from other orders of government.
Council needed to make tough decisions in order to face these challenges head on. This included a difficult decision to raise property taxes to catch up on underinvestment in the Edmonton Police Service, public transit, snow removal, affordable housing, crisis diversion programs and many other core services.
“I know that tax increases have been hard on many, and I deeply appreciate the sacrifices Edmontonians are making.
“We are starting to see the positive results of these investments on the issues that Edmontonians care about most. I know there is more work to do and I know not everyone is seeing the results of our investments yet.
“I will keep working hard to ensure that all Edmontonians benefit from the services they are investing in,” Sohi said.
The Leger poll was conducted from May 22 to May 25. The online survey sampled 401 Edmonton respondents 18 years of age or older. Leger said the margin of error was no greater than ±4.9% (19 times out of 20) for the total Edmonton sample. Leger said the results were weighted according to age, gender, region, and education in order to ensure a representative sample of the Edmonton population.
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