The Mississauga mayoral race has tightened with around two weeks to go until election day, a new poll suggests.
The survey, conducted by Liaison Strategies for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada, found that Carolyn Parrish is narrowly holding on to a lead.
“There’s a lot to say about this survey,” said Liaison Strategies principal David Valentin in a news release discussing the results.
“Perhaps the most striking numbers come from undecided voters. The undecided rate has dropped to 16 per cent among all voters — but it has jumped to 37 per cent among seniors.”
Valentin said the number of undecided voters should be expected to fall closer to election day and it’s “surprising” to see it rise among seniors.
“Among seniors, Carolyn Parrish has lost 16 points (from 36 per cent to 20 per cent) and one would assume at least part of this can be attributed to recent statements Parrish has made during the election and, potentially, her decision to not attend future election debates,” Valentin said.
“Her competitors, of course, seized on her remarks and played a role in their amplification.”
Valentin said a “large pool of reliable voters” still haven’t made up their mind.
Parrish has a small lead over Dipika Damerla among decided voters (29 per cent to 25 per cent), Valentin said, noting that the poll also has a margin or error of plus or minus 3.22 per cent.
“This really could be anyone’s race,” he said.
The Liaison Strategies poll results were the following:
Among All Voters
- 25% – Carolyn Parrish (-3)
- 20% – Dipika Damerla (+5)
- 16% – Alvin Tedjo (+3)
- 10% – Stephen Dasko (+2)
- 8% – Brian Crombie (+3)
- 6% – Someone Else
- 16% – Undecided (-9)
Decided Voters Only
- 29% – Carolyn Parrish (-8)
- 24% – Dipika Damerla (+4)
- 19% – Alvin Tedjo (+2)
- 12% – Stephen Dasko (+1)
- 9% – Brian Crombie (+2)
- 7% – Someone Else
Valentin said if Parrish is able to win back seniors, she has “a very good chance” of becoming Mississauga’s next mayor.
“But the opportunity is there for the Damerla and Tedjo campaigns to seize the momentum and votes,” he said.
Valentin said “a big question mark” continues to be voter turnout.
The City of Mississauga said Monday that the first round of advance voting, held from May 24 to 25 at city hall, marked a “significant increase” in turnout compared to the first few days of advance voting in the 2022 municipal election.
Just over 2,250 people voted early at city hall, marking a 42 per cent jump compared to 2022.
On June 1 and 2, advance voting locations will open across the city from 10 a.m. to 6 p.m.
Ballots can be cast at any advance voting location in the city.
Valentin said the efficiency of campaigns will be vital in getting voters out to the polls.
“On balance, a candidate with 200 volunteers polling at 15 per cent is going to outperform a candidate with 10 volunteers and also at 15 per cent,” he said.
“The lower the turnout and the more efficient the campaign organization, the greater the possibility for a campaign to outperform their poll numbers. Conversely, campaigns can underperform too.”
The Liaison Strategies poll was conducted from May 24 to 25 and surveyed 933 Mississauga residents. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.22 per cent, 19 times out of 20.