For much of Canada, summer 2023 was an endless onslaught of searing heat, flames and smoke. By Sept. 5, wildfires had scorched 16.5 million hectares of land — more than six times what an average fire season consumes in this country.
The impact of a warming planet felt with every evacuation order or day spent under a blanket of choking dark smoke.
Still, as bad as this fire season was, climate scientists agree the planet is in for far worse if global average temperatures are allowed to rise more than two degrees.
Canada has joined more than 120 countries in committing to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, but according to a report this month from the United Nations, Canada is not on track to meet its goal.
In fact, among G20 countries, Canada is further behind with a so-called implementation gap (the difference between a country’s commitments and the climate policies it has implemented) of 27 per cent. In comparison, the report found the United States has an implementation gap of 19 per cent, while the European Union’s gap is nine per cent.
“I would say we have significantly narrowed that (gap) in the last few years, but we are not on track to meet our targets,” said Kathryn Harrison, a political science professor at the University of British Columbia who studies environmental, climate and energy policy.
“There are some really big and obviously contentious policies that the federal government still needs to land very soon. “
Those policies include the Zero Emissions Vehicles mandate: proposed regulations announced last December would require 100 per cent of new vehicles sold in Canada to be zero emissions by 2035, an Oil and Gas Emissions Cap and the Clean Electricity Regulation (CER).
A draft of the CER was announced in August. It calls on provinces to bring their electricity grids to net zero by 2035 by phasing out fossil fuel sources and investing in renewable energy.
Last week, the Alberta government invoked the Alberta Sovereignty Act in a largely symbolic act of defiance against the CER. Premier Danielle Smith said the timeline is unrealistic for a province whose grid relies heavily on natural gas.
Smith said Alberta is exploring the possibility of setting up a Crown corporation to defy the proposed federal law, one that would invest and operate natural gas fired electricity past 2035.
“My expectation is that if Alberta and Saskatchewan are upset about the clean electricity regulation, things are going to be even more contentious when the federal government proposes its oil and gas emissions cap,” Harrison said.
Pushback against climate policies from provinces with economies linked to fossil fuels is not surprising or new, but climate policy is not the priority it once was for voters.
“The biggest hurdle now to the federal government’s climate change agenda is the link to affordability,” said Andrew Leach, an economics and law professor at the University of Alberta.
Leach is among a number of climate policy researchers who say the federal government made a major misstep earlier this year when it announced homes that used heating oil would be exempt from paying the carbon tax.
Leach says the federal government has done a poor job when it comes to communicating how the carbon pricing program works, and that by offering a heating oil exemption, Ottawa has created a false link between the carbon tax and affordability.
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“One of the key pillars of the carbon pricing is (that) …. overall … (it) puts more dollars in the pockets of lower-income Canadians when you account for the rebate.” he said.
“I think that’s been lost on Canadians. To make a concession in what seems like a moment of political panic really undermined their credibility,” Harrison said.
She said credibility is something the government will need as it works to make up ground on reaching Canada’s climate goals.
“Canadian voters are a real wild card in all of this,” she said. “I think there is a real risk that voters will embrace short-term promises to reduce their costs.
“If we back off now, we will pay so much more in terms of the cost of climate change.”
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