SASKATOON – With election day getting closer and closer, many Canadians are wondering what their federal government will look like after Oct. 19. Political scientist John Courtney says there will be three possibilities for government after the election takes place: a majority, a minority, or a coalition.
The problem is, there seems to be a lot of confusion as to how the Canadian electoral system works.
“What has happened is politicians and pundits … very often have very little or no understanding of what the proper procedure should be,” said Courtney, a political science professor at the University of Saskatchewan.
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In Canadian politics, voters elect MPs to Parliament, and Parliament decides who will govern. If one party gets a majority (170 seats or more), they form government. But if no one gets a majority, there are several options.
The most common, a minority government, happened in 2006. That’s when the Harper Conservatives defeated the Liberals, and formed a minority government.
In 2008, Harper called another election, and won another minority. But the opposition was not prepared to support him, and the Liberals and NDP pledged to form a coalition government.
But Harper prevented that from happening by asking the Governor General to prorogue parliament. When the House resumed in early 2009, the Liberals had a new leader who did not support the coalition.
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In this election, there are three options. If the Conservatives win the most seats, they form government – either a majority, or a minority. If they don’t win the most, what’s expected to happen is they resign, and the winning party moves in.
“But that’s not written in stone, it’s a convention,” explained Courtney.
In theory, the prime minister could try to hold onto power, and face likely defeat.
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The other option is a coalition, when at least two parties join up to form government. There have been loose coalitions in Canadian history, but since Confederation there has never been a formal one.
“Three of the last four elections have produced minority governments, but no coalitions,” said Courtney, “So it’s not necessarily that you will have a coalition between the two opposition parties coming out of this next election.”
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