OTTAWA – Statistics Canada released a population projection report Wednesday outlining possible scenarios where Saskatchewan may end up in over the next 25 years.
The report outlines several scenarios, with projections ranging from 1,173,900 to 1,527,000 people by 2038.
The provincial government was quick to point out that when StatsCan ran this model in 2005, the most optimistic scenario had Saskatchewan hitting 1,064,000 by 2031.
“Today, the least optimistic projection shows stronger growth than the most optimistic one just a decade ago. Things have changed a lot in Saskatchewan,” said Brad Wall.
StatsCan estimated Saskatchewan’s population to be 1,122,588 in April 2014.
READ MORE: Saskatchewan grows by over 5K people
All projection scenarios see Saskatchewan’s population increasing, with net international migration being the main driver of growth.
Wednesday’s report says Saskatchewan’s demographic weight within Canada’s population could decline from 3.2 per cent in 2013 to 2.7 per cent by 2038. Only one scenario suggests an increase – 3.5 per cent.
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“There are many challenges that come with growth, but I would rather deal with those than the challenges of decline our province was facing just a few short years ago,” said Wall.
According to provincial government, lower growth projections are based on population trends dating back to Saskatchewan’s zero-growth period from the 1990s and early 2000s, while higher growth scenarios are based on recent trends.
The median age of Saskatchewan is projected to increase from 37.1 years in 2013 to between 39.6 years and 42.7 years in 2038.
By 2038, the proportion of seniors aged 65 years and over would be lower than the national average in Saskatchewan, varying between 19 and 23 per cent.
According to all projections, Canada will continue to grow over the next half century, reaching between 40 million and 63.5 million.
Statistics Canada has been publishing population projections roughly every five years for the past four decades.
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