The only thing we know is Toronto is getting a new mayor

So here’s what we know: Toronto is getting a new mayor.

That’s about as absolute as you can get given the nature of this campaign.

Think about it.

All the know-it-all political observers were predicting Olivia Chow would walk away with this race, especially if John Tory and Rob Ford were among the candidates. Remember? Rob Ford and Tory were going to split the right and Chow would walk up the middle.

Not quite.

In fact, most of the polls we’ve seen over the past month or so suggest Chow is struggling, at best, to sit second.

And then, of course, nobody predicted the mayor would be felled by illness, never mind the three-Ford-ballot-shuffle we saw mere minutes before nominations closed.

So now we have Doug Ford, who was a reluctant councillor, running as a reluctant mayoralty candidate.

Up until now, we were shaking our heads at the seemingly indestructible nature of our mayor who was still a serious contender to be re-elected almost in spite of his antics and addictions.

But the past week has changed all that.

Yes, the latest Ipsos Reid poll done for Global News suggests John Tory has a comfortable lead over Chow and Doug Ford, but this campaign is far from finished.

While most of the media is breathlessly waiting for Doug to step up and present his first policy or platform statement, to fire a proverbial shot across Tory’s bow, the most important comment of this campaign won’t come from a candidate.

The course and the tone of the campaign have yet to be determined: It’s all going to depend on the diagnosis and prognosis for Rob Ford which could come Wednesday.

How will it affect Doug Ford’s willingness to run? How will that affect the debate and campaign dynamic for Tory and Chow? How will it affect the general engagement among Toronto voters?

We don’t know.

All we know right now is Toronto is getting a new mayor.