June 5, 2014 3:45 pm
Updated: June 5, 2014 3:46 pm

Who’s ahead in the Ontario election? Analysis suggests Liberals lead

TORONTO – The June 12 election could result in a very similar outcome as the 2011 election that gave the Liberals their minority government if an aggregation of recent polls turns out to be correct.

The analysis was done by the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy with polls conducted between May 26 and June 3.

The result shows a small but growing lead for the Liberals.

If the projections are an accurate prediction of what transpires on June 12, the Liberals will be returned to Queen’s Park with 49 seats – five short of a majority – and four behind their 53 seats in the 2011 election.

In Depth: Ontario Election 2014

The Tories are projected to win 39 seats – two more than the 2011 result. The NDP are also projected to pick up two more seats than they did in 2011 and win 19 seats.

The polls however were conducted prior to the Ontario Leaders’ Debate and it’s still unclear how the debate might have affected voter intentions.

An Ipsos-Reid poll conducted among viewers immediately following the debate suggested 36 per cent of those surveyed thought Hudak won the debate.

Seat projection, June 6 »

Seat projection, June 6

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