For the third straight season the Toronto Maple Leafs are crashing and burning.
In 2011-12 it was an 18-wheeler going off the cliff, winning only 7 of the final 29 games; last season it was blowing a 4-1 lead in game 7 against the Boston Bruins; and this season it could be even worse, dropping eight straight and falling from near the top of the Eastern Conference to outside the playoffs in a matter of weeks.
The eight-game (and counting) losing streak is the worst by the club in almost 30 years and came when the Leafs were almost assured a spot in the post-season. After beating LA 3-2 on March 13th, the Leafs had an 89.68 per cent chance of making the playoffs. After losing to Detroit on March 29th? 6.49 per cent.
It all happened so fast. What went wrong?
The goaltending, a strength of the team all season and the only reason the Leafs were even in playoff contention, went south over the critical stretch run. In eight games in March Jonathan Bernier’s save percentage was only .907, down precipitously from his .925 mark from the rest of the season. And because James Reimer played so poorly in relief during the stretch (.896 save percentage in eight games), Bernier rushed back from a groin injury and didn’t play much better over the last three games. It’s hard to win when your goalies play poorly. But it’s even harder for the Maple Leafs considering the stress they heap on their netminders.
Under Randy Carlyle’s system the Leafs will likely allow more shots by the time the regular season ends than any team since the NHL began tracking shots for/against. It’s not surprising that the goalies eventually cracked. When the netminders weren’t leveling the playing field it became clear Toronto couldn’t create enough chances to make up for the swelling number of chances they were allowing.
To make matters worse, the Leafs power play couldn’t make up for their poor play at even strength. A top-10 unit all year, the Leafs only managed six goals in 42 opportunities in March (14 per cent, which would be worse than all but three teams), down from 42 goals in 193 opportunities (21.7 per cent) earlier in the year.
Roster decisions didn’t help matters either. Carlyle’s decision to essentially punt the fourth line all season, giving a customary five minutes a night to players like Frazer McLaren and Colton Orr instead of players who could be trusted to play 10 minutes without disaster, put undue pressure on the rest of the lineup. Relying on three lines may not have been a big deal over a shortened 48-game season, but it’s a killer over 82. The elevated minutes could have caught up to the Leafs’ top players at the most crucial time.
With the season on the line the Leafs could no longer out-score their problems, and in all likelihood will find themselves once again outside the playoffs. The next question is whether the duo of Dave Nonis and Randy Carlyle come back to fix this mess or whether spring cleaning is in order.
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