Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has shuffled his cabinet as he faces growing domestic pressure and what could be his biggest political challenge yet.
Trudeau is leading a government that has been in power for eight years, is flagging in the polls, and is dealing with a number of political headaches. The Liberals are also facing a re-energized Conservative Party under Pierre Poilievre at a time when most Canadians say they want change in Ottawa.
Many of Trudeau’s cabinet shuffles have come in response to significant external events. In 2017, it was in response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s election and in anticipation of tough re-negotiations on continental free trade. A major shuffle in 2018 followed with an emphasis on trade and diversifying Canadian markets after Trump’s chaotic first years in power.
In 2021, the shuffle followed a second-straight election where the Liberals failed to re-capture a majority government while the country grappled with the long and difficult recovery from the COVID-19 crisis, and amid increasing tensions with the world’s other superpower, China.
Wednesday’s shuffle came after a bruising seven months, which saw the government beset with challenges to both its legislative agenda — gun control, addressing tech giants’ dominance over Canadians’ information and the contentious online streaming act — as well as the Liberals’ political fortunes.
It also came as new polling from Abacus Data gave Poilievre’s Conservatives a 10-point lead in national polling, leading with 38 per cent to the Liberals 28 per cent.
Despite its significance — seven ministers dropped to the backbench, a total of 30 changes in portfolios — a cabinet shuffle in the dog days of summer is unlikely to do much to change those numbers. But it does give the new cabinet ministers time to settle into their roles before a retreat planned for August, and the resumption of the House of Commons in September.
Speaking to reporters outside Rideau Hall on Wednesday, Trudeau said it’s a “moment of consequential impact in the world and in the country.”
“This is a moment where I’m putting forward the strongest possible team with fresh energy and a range of skills that are going to be able to continue the really important work of showing Canadians the positive and ambitious vision for the future,” Trudeau said.
As long as the Liberals can keep the New Democrats happy in their supply and confidence deal, Trudeau will not have to worry about an election until 2025.
But you don’t have to be able to read tea leaves or animal entrails to see that the political situation is deteriorating for Trudeau and the Liberals. Governments tend to have a shelf life, and no prime minister in modern Canadian history has won four-straight elections.
“I think it’s a very urgent political issue that they’re facing … They’ve been government for almost eight years, Trudeau’s been the leader for 10 years plus, they’re on their third term,” said Lori Turnbull, the director of Dalhousie University’s School of Public Administration, in an interview Wednesday.
“Are people going to want to see something new? They’re trying to be something new and something old at the same time. And whether that’s going to work, you know, who knows?”
According to the Abacus Data numbers released Wednesday, Poilievre’s Conservatives lead the Liberals from B.C. to Manitoba, but — crucially — are ahead by six percentage points in seat-rich Ontario. According to the poll — interviewing 2,486 Canadians between July 20 to July 25, with a margin of error of two percentage points — the Liberals have fallen into second place in Quebec and are neck-and-neck with the Conservatives in Atlantic Canada, previously a bastion of Grit support.
Trudeau’s personal approval rating has been steadily declining — with 51 per cent of respondents saying they have a negative impression of the prime minister, compared with 29 per cent with a positive impression. Canadians’ feelings toward Poilievre appear to be improving, with 31 per cent with a positive impression compared with 37 per cent with a negative one in Abacus’ numbers.
Asked if this latest cabinet was a response to his deteriorating political fortunes, Trudeau said that “on the contrary” it was about building on economic growth and seeing inflation come down.
“(It’s about) having a renewed team with a range of new voices and new skills and experience, new challenges for our strongest ministers to be able to step up and meet this consequential moment in the lives of Canadians,” Trudeau said.
While it will take time for the new ministers to get acquainted with their portfolios — and to find out if they’ll be more successful than their predecessors — Wednesday’s shuffle did point to the Liberals attempting to address some problems.
The Conservatives have staked out housing affordability and housing issues as a central part of their economic message — at a time when some Canadians remain priced out of the housing market, and others worry about the impact of interest rates on their mortgages.
“We’ll bring homes people can afford by incentivizing municipalities to free up land, speed up and lower the cost of building permits,” Poilievre said at a press conference Wednesday, reacting to Trudeau’s shuffle.
“We’ll require cities boost building permits by 15 per cent per year, we’ll require every federally funded transit station to be pre-approved for high-density housing around it, even on top so that youth and seniors can live right next to the bus or train.”
Nova Scotia’s Sean Fraser moved from immigration to Housing, Infrastructure and Communities. Fraser is seen as a steady hand and a strong communicator — and someone who doesn’t shy away from a scrap with the opposition Conservatives — taking over the file from Ahmed Hussen who has had several high-profile missteps in recent months. Hussen remains in cabinet, shuffled to International Development.
Public Safety is rarely a good-news portfolio, but outgoing minister Marco Mendicino had been in hot water for months over the government’s response or lack of response to foreign interference, the last-minute revisions to the Liberal gun control plan, and for the controversy surrounding the transfer of Paul Bernardo to a medium-security prison. Mendicino was one of seven ministers dropped from cabinet entirely, releasing a statement Wednesday morning thanking Trudeau for the opportunity and expressing pride in his tenure.
Enter Dominic LeBlanc, one of Trudeau’s most trusted ministers who has moonlighted on the Public Safety beat before. LeBlanc had already been spearheading negotiations for a public inquiry into foreign interference as intergovernmental affairs minister. Now he will have full responsibility for it, along with whatever the next crisis to engulf the RCMP might be.
Wednesday’s shuffle also moved Anita Anand, a rising figure in Liberal politics believed to have leadership ambitions, from the defence portfolio while the war in Ukraine stretches on and the oft-discussed cultural change in the Canadian Armed Forces remains incomplete. Anand’s move has already raised eyebrows among defence watchers, who have questioned what it means for the Liberals’ commitment to reforming the ranks.
Anand goes to Treasury Board, a crucial portfolio for the operations of government but much less public-facing than defence. Her replacement, former Toronto police chief Bill Blair, is not particularly known for his communications acumen or stickhandling largescale reform.
A core group of senior ministers — Chrystia Freeland as deputy prime minister and finance minister, Melanie Joly at foreign affairs, Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne and Steven Guilbeault at environment — remain in their posts, giving a measure of stability to Trudeau’s cabinet.
It might be the only stability Trudeau and his team — both fresh faces and veteran ministers — can count on heading into a make-or-break political year and, inevitably, the next election.
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