For months, the outspoken millionaire head of the Wagner private military contractor bombarded Russia’s military leaders with expletive-ridden insults in a rift that has weakened the country’s forces amid the war in Ukraine.
On Friday, Yevgeny Prigozhin appeared to take a step too far.
He accused Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu of ordering a rocket strike on the field camps for his mercenary troops, with a huge number of casualties, and said he would move to punish him.
That’s when Russian authorities struck back, with the country’s top counterterrorism organization launching a criminal inquiry against Prigozhin on charges of fomenting an “armed rebellion” over threats to oust Shoigu.
It was a startling turn of events in Moscow: After more than two decades of rigidly controlled rule by President Vladimir Putin, the worst infighting spilled out in the open among his top lieutenants.
And it came as the war in Ukraine reached the 16-month mark and Kyiv’s forces were probing Russian defenses in the initial stages of a counteroffensive.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin has been informed about the situation, adding that “all the necessary measures were being taken.”
Prigozhin, 62, insisted his actions were not “a military coup, but a march of justice.”
The Russian Defense Ministry rejected Prigozhin’s claim of any kind of attack on his troops. Then the National Anti-Terrorism Committee, an arm of Federal Security Service, or FSB, announced the investigation against the outspoken millionaire and urged Wagner’s own forces to arrest their chief.
Prigozhin’s statement was a “stab in the back of the Russian troops,” the FSB said, and amounted to fomenting armed conflict in Russia.
Until now, Prigozhin’s rants against the military leadership have been met with silence from Putin and the military. Some saw that failure to squelch the infighting as a sign of potential shifts in Russia’s political scene that sets the stage for more internal battles.
A video that Prigozhin released in May was shocking — not just for what it showed but also for what he said. He stood in front of the bloodied bodies of his slain troops near Bakhmut, a city in eastern Ukraine, yelling expletive-riddled insults at Shoigu and the chief of the General Staff Gen. Valery Gerasimov, calling them weak and incompeten and blaming them for the carnage.
“They came here as volunteers and they died to let you lounge in your mahogany offices,” Prigozhin declared. “You are sitting in your expensive clubs, your children are enjoying good living and filming videos on YouTube. Those who don’t give us ammunition will be eaten alive in hell!”
That rift with the military escalated sharply Friday, with his accusation that Shoigu had targeted Wagner forces. Prigozhin said his men were embarking on a mission to punish the military leaders who ordered the strike and urged the army not to offer resistance, saying his troops would fire at any military checkpoints trying to stop them and down any attacking aircraft.
“The evil embodied by the country’s military leadership must be stopped,” Prigozhin shouted in a recorded statement, adding that his forces weren’t seeking to challenge Putin and other government structures. “Justice in the armed forces will be restored, and then justice will be restored in all of Russia.”
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The conflict so far has been ignored by state-controlled TV, where most Russians get their news. It’s followed closely, however, by the politically active, ultrapatriotic readers and viewers on social media networks, which share his contempt for military leaders.
The blistering criticism went on even though the Kremlin vigorously cracks down on other critics through fines and imprisonment.
While there are no indications Putin is losing influence, “there are growing signs of deep dysfunction, anxiety, worry about the war and real problems in marshaling the resources necessary to fight it effectively,” said Nigel Gould-Davies, a senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Prigozhin’s feud with military leaders goes back years, and it spilled into the open amid the fighting for Bakhmut that was spearheaded by his mercenaries. It has pushed the man dubbed “Putin’s chef” for his lucrative Kremlin catering contracts to the forefront of Russian politics and signaled his growing ambitions.
With his crude remarks, Prigozhin ventured into areas where only Putin had gone before: Over the years, the Russian leader occasionally broke decorum with an earthy remark or off-color joke, while top officials used carefully worded language.
In another recent video, Prigozhin made a statement that some have interpreted as a thinly veiled attack on Putin himself. He declared that while his men were dying due to the Defense Ministry’s failure to supply ammunition, a “happy granddad is thinking he’s doing well,” and then referred to that “granddad” with an obscenity.
The blunt comment caused a social media uproar, where it was broadly seen as a reference to Putin. Prigozhin later said he was talking about Gerasimov.
“Prigozhin is now sailing much closer to the wind than he ever has,” Gould-Davies told The Associated Press.
Sergei Markov, a pro-Kremlin political commentator, described Prigozhin as “the second-most popular man after Putin” and a “symbol of Russia’s military victory for millions of people.”
Putin has needed Prigozhin’s mercenaries at a time when the regular military is still recovering from setbacks earlier in the war. The Wagner chief’s position was bolstered after his private army captured Bakhmut last month in the war’s longest and bloodiest battle, relying on tens of thousands of convicts who were promised pardons if they survived six months of fighting.
“Putin dominates the system, but he still sort of depends upon a small number of big people to implement his will, to provide him with resources to carry out his orders, including fighting the war,” Gould-Davies told AP.
While Putin may keep various factions divided and then “decide who wins and who loses, and who’s up and who’s down,” the process erodes the government’s authority in wartime, Gould-Davies said.
“If your military forces are divided and if they’re not fighting together effectively, then your military operations will suffer accordingly and that’s exactly what’s happening here,” he said.
Mark Galeotti, a London-based expert on Russian politics and security, speculated in a recent podcast that Putin’s failure to resolve political disputes could be rooted in a lack of interest, a focus on other issues or, more likely, a reluctance to take sides.
“It also raises questions about his overall capacity to do his job,” Galeotti said. “This is the one thing, the one job he can’t really outsource, and he’s not even trying.”
Prigozhin has allied with other hawkish officials, reportedly including Tula Gov. Alexei Dyumin, a former Putin bodyguard seen by many as a potential successor. The Wagner head also has gravitated toward Ramzan Kadyrov, the Moscow-backed regional leader of Chechnya. While denouncing most senior military leaders, Prigozhin spoke approvingly about Gen. Sergei Surovikin, who led Russian forces in Ukraine for several months before Putin appointed Gerasimov to oversee the operations.
But some of those alliances have been shaky.
While Kadyrov initially praised Prigozhin and backed some of his criticism of the military leaders, he later shifted course and criticized him for sounding defeatist. Kadyrov’s lieutenants went further, blasting Wagner’s efforts in Bakhmut after Prigozhin made dismissive comments about Chechen fighters in Ukraine. Kadyrov’s right-hand man, Magomed Daudov, bluntly said Prigozhin would have been executed for such statements during World War II.
Prigozhin quickly backed off, saying he was only expressing concern about Russian operations.
Prigozhin has dodged questions about his ambitions, but in a move that reflected his desire to gain political clout, he recently toured Russia, continuing a barrage of blustery comments.
“There are signs that he seeks some sort of political future,” Gould-Davies observed.
Even though Prigozhin owes his position and wealth to Putin, he’s playing the role of outsider with his criticism of some leaders and by trying to appeal to the masses amid setbacks in Ukraine, said Andrei Kolesnikov of the Carnegie Endowment.
“Prigozhin is playing an independent politician, raising the stakes and testing the system’s limits. But it’s only technically and physically possible for as long as Putin finds him useful and is amused by his escapades,” Kolesnikov said.
In a show of support for the military, Putin backed the Defense Ministry’s demand for all private companies to sign contracts with it _ something Prigozhin has refused to do.
Prigozhin has urged all-out war with Ukraine, including a total nationwide mobilization and the introduction of martial law in Russia _ calls welcomed by some hawks.
But Kolesnikov notes the vast majority of Russians who are mostly apathetic or unwilling to make larger sacrifices could be frightened and appalled by that message.
He cautions against overestimating Prigozhin’s clout and political prospects, and underestimating Putin’s authority.
“It’s enough for the commander-in-chief to move his finger to make the Wagner chief disappear,” Kolesnikov said.
Associated Press writer Danica Kirka in London contributed.
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