Heavy precipitation south of the border will likely lead to a “major risk” of flooding on the Red River, and a low to moderate risk in most Manitoba basins.
That’s according to the latest update from Manitoba’s Hydrologic Forecast Centre, which says it’s likely that the Red River Floodway will be used this spring to divert rising water around Winnipeg. The Portage Diversion is also expected to be used.
The flood risk is low or moderate along most rivers, including the Assiniboine, Pembina, Roseau and Souris, due to low snowfall over the winter and low soil moisture when the ground froze.
The exception is the Red River, because of heavy snowfall upstream in North Dakota that is to soon melt, Transportation and Infrastructure Minister Doyle Piwniuk said Wednesday.
“There’s a lot of snow that happened about a month ago and they’ve had a number of systems since that time,” he said.
Overall, weather conditions and the rate of melting will determine the severity — or not — of flooding in the province.
Some low-lying areas along the Red River south of Winnipeg could see flooding, but the water is not expected to rise enough to overcome community dikes and diversions, the province said in its March flood outlook.
Highway 75 — the key link between Winnipeg and the United States border that often has some sections flooded — is likely to be spared this year, Piwniuk added. The highway is an important trade and tourism corridor, and spring flooding over many years has prompted closures and lengthy detours.
‘It’s the concern of what’s to the south of us’
In one part of southern Manitoba typically hit hard by flooding, officials are taking a close look at upcoming weather patterns to get a read on how badly they’ll be affected by rising waters.
RM of Montcalm CAO Jolene Bird said what happens in the U.S. over the next several weeks will make a difference in the flood situation in her area, south of Morris, Man.
“We don’t have a huge amount of snow here, but it’s the concern of what’s to the south of us,” Bird told 680 CJOB’s The Start.
“Fargo (N.D.) got another six inches last night, so we’re definitely watching the weather closely and hoping these systems stop coming through Grand Forks and Fargo … because the water all has to come here eventually.”
Morris Mayor Scott Crick said there are a number of variables — ranging from the amount of moisture in the snow to the ground’s ability to absorb water, to the speed of the melt — that will be factors.
Crick told 680 CJOB there would be less of a concern had work on Highway 75 been completed as scheduled last year.
“The raising of Highway 75 and the completion of the dike to protect it … was not completed last year,” he said.
“So for us, the major concern again is ensuring that if the water comes up and it is mitigatable, that we can keep that highway open.
“Otherwise it has a disastrous effect on our local economy.”
Some 2022 flood evacuees still displaced: NDP
Manitoba often sees some areas flooded in spring as water rushes in from the south and west.
The province has built up a series of dikes, dams and diversions to protect communities.
The biggest defence is the Red River Floodway, a massive ditch that diverts water from the river around Winnipeg.
Last year saw severe flooding in some areas north of Winnipeg. Some 2,000 people were evacuated from the Peguis First Nation as the Fisher River inundated the community.
About 900 are still unable to return, Amanda Lathlin, a legislature member with the Opposition New Democrats, said Wednesday.
The province is still in talks with the federal government about permanent flood mitigation for the community, Piwniuk said, and the risk of flooding in the area this year is low.
Provincial officials cautioned the flood threat could increase if the weather in the coming weeks becomes much worse than normal.
Spring flooding is affected by a combination of several factors, such as how quickly the snow melts and whether heavy rain or snow falls at the same time.
–With files from Steve Lambert at The Canadian Press
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