Doug Ford and his Progressive Conservatives are poised to form government for a second term, with another majority likely in the cards, a new poll has found.
The poll, conducted by Ipsos exclusively for Global News, found from respondents that Ford would get 41 per cent of the decided vote — up three points since the middle of the campaign.
The survey indicated a majority government was likely for the PCs because of the Liberal-NDP vote splitting.
With that, the poll also found when it came down to who will become the official Opposition, the race is extremely tight between the NDP and Liberals.
The NDP under Andrea Horwath and the Liberals led by Steven Del Duca are statistically tied at 25 per cent and 24 per cent of the vote, respectively. This is up by two per cent for Horwath and down by four per cent for Del Duca.
Ontario Green Party Mike Schreiner would get six per cent of the vote, which is unchanged.
Other parties such as New Blue would get four per cent. One in 11 (or nine per cent) are undecided while four per cent of respondents say they will not vote or one per cent who refused to answer.
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The poll said six in 10 respondents who declared their support for a party said they are absolutely certain of their choice, leaving four in 10 who are not as certain. Those supporting the PC Party were more certain of their choice at 66 per cent compared to Liberals at 60 per cent, NDP at 55 per cent and Greens at 43 per cent. The other half (49 per cent) were less certain.
“This means there is still time for movement of votes particularly among the progressive parties,” according to the Ipsos poll. “It also suggests a certain degree of apathy which could result in lower turnout among supporters of these parties.”
When it comes to electoral success, the poll noted that in key areas such as the Greater Toronto Area and southwestern Ontario, the PCs have a strong advantage — particularly in the 905 with a 20-point lead.
In Toronto, the PCs are competitive and they also lead in every other region of the province, the poll said.
Among men, the PCs dominate the vote with 49 per cent, a substantial lead over the NDP with 21 per cent, the Liberals with 19 per cent, the Greens with seven per cent, the poll found.
However, among women, none of the parties stand out with a three-way statistical tie, the poll found.
When broken down by age groups, the PCs lead the most with those aged 55 at 48 per cent — well ahead of Liberals at 26 per cent, NDP at 17 per cent and Greens at six per cent.
In the 35 to 54 age group, the PCs also have a big lead with 38 per cent support, followed by the NDP with 26 per cent, the Liberals with 24 per cent and the Greens with eight per cent.
Meanwhile, in the 18 to 34 demographic, the poll noted the NDP lead at 38 per cent with the PCs trailing behind at 33 per cent. The Liberals sit at 22 per cent and the Greens at six per cent.
However, only 48 per cent of those 18 to 34 said they are absolutely certain they will cast their ballot.
In an interview with Global News, Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs, said Ford and the PCs have “found themselves just in a particularly advantageous time in terms of public opinion.”
“People are going through a lot of change – they’re just coming out of a pandemic,” he said. “Obviously inflation is an incredibly fast moving issue and they’re looking for a little bit of stability, I think, in their lives.”
He said the public feels the Ford administration did “not too bad” when it comes to handling the pandemic.
“They’re prepared to allow the government to try and manage us through the situation that we’re going to be facing,” Bricker said. “So they’re not fickle, they’re not focused on change right now and, in particular, they’re not seeing any opposition options that are really compelling for them.”
Meanwhile, Bricker said “at the moment” there is a “pretty vicious race for second place.”
“Progressive voters don’t seem to be able to unite behind a single option,” he said. “If they could, then the Ford administration would be in trouble.”
Bricker said right now, neither Horwath nor Del Duca has been able to “win what one might call the progressive primary here, and be the standard bearer for progressive voters in this election.”
“And as long as they remain split, (it will be) very difficult to defeat the Progressive Conservatives,” he said.
The Ontario election is set for Thursday.
-with files from Global News’ Hannah Jackson
METHODOLOGY: This Ipsos poll was conducted between May 29 to 31, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of n = 2,501 eligible voters in Ontario aged 18+ was interviewed. A sample of n = 1,501 was interviewed online and a sample of n = 1000 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed by live-interview telephone interviewers by landline and cellphone, using random-digit dialing. The precision of Ipsos polls which include non-probability sampling is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Ontarians been polled.
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