Foreign-born population increasing in Canada: Report

By 2031, more than one-quarter of Canada’s population could be foreign-born, surpassing previous record-high levels set in the early part of the 20th century, according to new projections released Tuesday from Statistics Canada.

The foreign-born population in Canada is expected to grow four times faster than the rest of the population for the next two decades and could reach between 9.8 and 12.5 million people by 2031, the agency says, comprising 25 to 29 per cent of the Canadian population. That would represent a big increase from 20 per cent on the 2006 census, and about 55 per cent of that foreign-born population would be born in Asia, the agency says.

Canada’s visible minority groups are growing rapidly, too, and expected to account for 29 to 32 per cent of the population two decades from now, which would more than double the proportion reported on the 2006 census. The visible-minority population is expected to grow rapidly among Canadian-born people, many of them children or grandchildren of immigrants, the report says.

Statistics Canada follows the Employment Equity Act in defining visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour."

The vast majority (96 per cent) of those belonging to a visible-minority group will continue to live in Canada’s largest cities, the agency projects, and by 2031, they could make up 63 per cent of Toronto’s population, 59 per cent of Vancouver’s and 31 per cent of Montreal’s citizens. In contrast, smaller cities such as St. John’s, Sudbury, Ont. and Saguenay, Que., will have no more than five per cent visible minorities.

In terms of Canada’s growing religious diversity, by 2031, the number of people with a non-Christian religion in Canada would almost double, from eight per cent in 2006 to 14 per cent. About one-half of those with a non-Christian religion would be Muslim, the report says, up from 35 per cent in 2006.

At the same time, the proportion of Canadians following a Christian religion is expected to decline from 75 per cent to about 65 per cent, the agency says, and the group with no religion will rise from 17 per cent to 21 per cent.

The new report uses complex demographic simulations and five different population growth scenarios to project the foreign-born population, visible minority groups, generation status, religious denomination and mother tongue in Canada 2031, generating a snapshot of the country’s growing diversity.