New Brunswick health officials painted a grim picture of what the COVID-19 situation in the province could look like in the coming weeks if the trend of high daily case numbers continue.
Mathieu Chalifoux, the lead COVID-19 epidemiologist with Public Health, announced at a news conference Tuesday that there are currently 88 people in hospital due to the disease, the highest number of hospitalizations seen yet.
“The Omicron variant is highly transmissible, and though milder than the Delta variant, it is by no means mild,” he said.
Chalifoux said for every 1,000 cases from the Delta variant, 60 hospitalizations are expected. With Omicron, that number is 10.
“While better, this is still enough to put our health system at risk due to the sheer volume of cases,” he said.
“This is above and beyond our capacity to continue testing and recording accurately.”
If current trends continue, the province could see close to 5,500 cases per day and 220 active hospitalizations at the peak of the wave, which should happen toward the end of January or beginning of February, he said.
He doesn’t expect to see the case and hospitalization numbers return to the levels that we’re seeing now for another five to six weeks.
Of those in hospital, 14 are in intensive care and 11 people are on a ventilator. Sixty-seven patients are over the age of 60 and nobody 19 and under is hospitalized.
The province says 35 of the people hospitalized were admitted for reasons other than COVID-19 and tested positive once admitted.
‘Hit on both ends’
The epidemiologist said isolation requirements will “undoubtedly impact our health care capacity” by forcing staff off the job.
“We will be hit on both ends,” Chalifoux said.
“At our peak weeks, we can expect over 5,000 New Brunswickers developing the disease daily. Over a five-day period, this would be about 25,000 individuals. Assuming 2.3 individuals per household, this could mean over seven per cent, or approximately 55,000 people, isolating at any given moment.
“This will impact not only our health-care system, but also other critical services such as fire departments, police departments, power services and so on and so forth.”
However, Chalifoux said there is a way to prevent the case numbers from blowing up to this extent.
“We all have to do our part in reducing the amount of contacts that we have,” he said.
“If we are able to reduce our contacts, through either seeing fewer people, distancing appropriately, or wearing well-fitted masks inside, then our peak may be cut by a third of what would happen without any changes in public behaviour.”
Dr. Jennifer Russell, the province’s chief medical officer of health, said in the weeks ahead, New Brunswickers will need to look after themselves, care for one another, and protect those who are working “to keep us healthy and safe.”
She said people should make a plan of what to do in case they or someone they love contract COVID-19.
“This storm will pass, but we are in for several weeks of very bad weather,” she said.
Despite the bleak outlook on the COVID-19 situation, Russell said the province is not yet putting in further restrictions, such as a move to the more restrictive Level 3 of its winter action plan.
She said the province continues to follow the situation “extremely closely.”
On Tuesday, the province reported 842 new positive results from rapid point-of-care tests.
“These totals are based on information received by the Department of Health from the public and are not intended to be taken as a true representation of the total number of cases in the province,” the province said in a release.
The release said the province is updating its COVID-19 dashboard to include rapid test results and “further enhancements will be made to the dashboard during the coming weeks.”
What to do if you or a loved one have COVID-19
Russell advised New Brunswickers to ensure they have the right supplies on hand in case they catch COVID-19 themselves or need to care for someone with COVID-19.
These supplies include tissues, medications for pain relief, a thermometer, easy-to-prepare meals like soups, and hydrating drinks like Gatorade or Pedialyte.
She said the most important thing to do is get vaccinated. Russell noted that 24 per cent of those in hospital have had their booster, “so it’s not that it eliminates the risk, but it diminishes it greatly.”
The other 76 per cent are unvaccinated, partially vaccinated, or have had six months pass since their last shot, she said.
For those recovering from COVID-19 at home, Russell said they can take non-prescription medications like Tylenol and ibuprofen to help with pain and fever, and said steam from a shower or humidifier can help ease coughing or a sore throat.
Those isolating at home should try to isolate away from other household members by staying in a different room, not sharing personal items and using a separate bathroom, if possible.
Anyone caring for a sick individual should wear a well-fitted mask while caring for the person. While medical masks are the best, Russell said a non-medical three-layer mask can be used if they fit well and completely cover their mouth and nose with no gaps.
People experiencing difficulty breathing, waking up, chest pain, and new onset mental confusion should call 911.
Impact on hospitals
The province’s two regional health networks say they are preparing for the high number of expected COVID-19 patients and staffing shortages in the coming weeks.
There are currently 377 health-care workers across the province who have tested positive for COVID-19 and are self-isolating. Both the Edmundston Regional Hospital and the Saint John Regional Hospital are closing units and reallocating staff to provide urgent and emergency services.
Dr. France Desrosiers, president and CEO of Vitalité Health Network, said while many health-care services have been reduced, the priority for the health network is to maintain essential services like intensive care, urgent surgeries, dialysis, oncology, and care for COVID-positive individuals.
As of Tuesday, the health network had 42 patients hospitalized and four are in intensive care. The occupation rate for their hospitals is at 94 per cent.
She said the health network is working on ways to reduce the number of people in hospitals, like moving seniors out of hospital to long-term care and improving primary care so people don’t need to go to the hospital as often.
Dr. John Dornan, interim president and CEO of Horizon Health Network, said “we’re not done with COVID yet, by any stretch.”
“We are at the start of a very high tidal wave,” he said. “It’s creeping up now, but in the next two to three weeks, it’s going to crash over us like no-one’s business.”
Dornan said they are at the point where they can no longer contain all affected and close-contact patients. At the Saint John Regional Hospital, there are currently outbreaks in six units.
He said they’re working under a “contingency approach,” where staff can come into work after five days of isolation if they test positive, rather than 10.
That being said, “we are at a crisis level where we are asking people to come back even earlier than five days,” said Dornan.
Horizon has cancelled over 360 surgeries “over these last few weeks,” and he acknowledged that cancelled surgeries take a toll on the affected patients who have been waiting.
“We’ve had to postpone that, and we don’t like to do that,” he said, adding that they are continuing to provide life-saving and cancer-related surgeries.
Dornan strongly encouraged everyone to cut their social contacts by 30 per cent.
“It’s by working together as a team and a phased approach that we will beat this pandemic,” he said.