Political watchers in New Brunswick say the provincial Green Party is well-positioned to avoid the fallout from the ongoing turmoil of their federal counterparts.
The federal wing of the party has been engaged in a public spat among members, leader Annamie Paul and the party council over the last several weeks. It began, in part, with Fredericton MP Jenica Atwin’s defection to the Liberal Party over her tenuous relationship with Paul and one of her advisors over the Israel-Palestine conflict.
Some political scientists in New Brunswick say the provincial Greens are in a good position to avoid the damage being done to the federal party with a federal election widely expected in the coming months.
“There is some wind at their sails regardless of what happens with the federal Greens,” says Jamie Gillies, a professor of public policy and communications at St. Thomas University.
“I think the federal Greens is their own federal Green Party mess and that will sort itself out, for good or for bad for that party, in the next federal election.”
Gillies says the provincial party has emerged as a credible voice on more than just the environment, increasingly capturing the province’s progressive vote with its dedication to important social issues in New Brunswick.
“They are two separate entities. The provincial Greens have their own base of support,” Gillies said. “The provincial Greens have established themselves as the third party in the legislature and their focus is not just on the environment but on New Brunswick issues that they feel are neglected by the major parties.”
“I think they’ve got a base of support that is very strong and different than the federal party.”
The federal and provincial parties are indeed different organizations. They don’t officially share resources and are independent on policy matters.
And Donald Wright, professor of political science at the University of New Brunswick, says the federal party depends much more on the provincial party than vice versa.
“The provincial Greens don’t need the federal Greens, but the federal Greens need the provincial Greens,” he said. “They’re the ones — the provincial Greens — that have the machine. People who are going to put up signs, people who are going to make the phone calls, do the social media, people who are going to open up their pocketbooks.”
“(The federal party) doesn’t have a robust machine on the ground.”
That base of support has worked to the federal party’s advantage in the past. Wright says Atwin’s election in 2019 was, in large part, due to the mobilization of the party apparatus that has grown under provincial leader David Coon over the last several years.
Both Wright and Gillies say the provincial party appears to be extremely healthy. In the 2020 provincial election, the party kept its three seats and grew its share of the popular vote from 11.9 per cent in 2018 to 15.2 per cent.
More importantly, according to Coon himself, the party finished second in 17 ridings.
“We’re working really hard now to make sure when 2024 arrives we’ll be people’s first choice in those ridings,” he said.
The party’s recent fundraising numbers show that the party’s ability to contest a province-wide election is growing. In 2020, the party brought in $345,988, breaking their previous third-party fundraising record of $302,749 in 2018.
That dwarfs the $80,287 and $64,548 brought in by the People’s Alliance and NDP respectively.
Gillies says if that trend holds up, moving towards the next scheduled election in 2024, it will allow the party to be aggressive in some of those ridings they placed second in last year. Particularly in ridings like Fredericton North and Moncton Centre where the party lost by about 700 votes apiece.
“They can then expand the map and target ridings … find great candidates who fit the community profile of the particular constituency and run there,” Gillies said.
“They came up a little bit short, but they have the ability to go back in there and win.”
Coon said the next two years will be about establishing more of a party apparatus, with a deeper pool of volunteers to help contest key ridings in 2024. And more money coming in means more money for the party to hire staff to help make that happen.
“In order to move those second-place finishes … to first-place finishes, we’ve got to increase, in some parts of the province, the organizing capacity on the ground,” Coon said.
“It really is putting in place the work to mobilize local members … to get organized locally.”