El Nino to deliver forgiving Canadian winter: Expert

Winter – still a couple of months away – is likely the furthest thing from most people’s minds, but Canada’s weather guru says the odds are in Canada’s favour this year for those who hate to bundle up.

Despite the Farmer’s Almanac calling for a harsh, frigid winter for much of the United States, Dave Phillips, a senior climatologist with Environment Canada, said another El Nino weather event will give Canadians a better chance to enjoy a milder 2009-10 winter.

"(The Farmer’s Almanac) looks at moon phases and tea leaves and all that stuff; we put a little bit of science into it," Phillips said Wednesday. "We’re not necessarily a lot more accurate than they are, but we think there are things you can look at to give you a clue of how the winter will be.

"Unlike the Farmer’s Almanac – if they’re calling for a more brutal, old fashioned winter – our models are suggesting it might not be that way."

El Nino is a warm Pacific Ocean current that occurs every three to five years. The current tends to disrupt typical weather patterns in North America.

There have been 17 El Nino "episodes" since 1950, with most of those years resulting in milder than normal conditions for many regions of Canada.

Although conditions vary from coast to coast, the warm Pacific air of El Nino tends to deliver more pleasant temperatures.

"When you look back over those (El Nino) winters, the vast majority of them, for many parts of Canada, were warmer than normal," Phillips said. "In Calgary, for example, in those 17 winters, 13 were warmer and just four were colder. There’s no guarantee ever with weather, but I’d go to the bank with those odds."

As you head east, however, those odds decrease significantly.

In Ottawa, nine El Nino winters were warmer and eight were colder. Phillips said those coin-flip odds aren’t worth betting the farm on.

One of the more significant El Nino years in Canada was in 1997-98, which recorded the fourth warmest Canadian winter in the last six decades. More recently, however, in 2006-07, El Nino brought Canada, on average, its third mildest winter over the same period.

Phillips said some regions may have to deal with other, more devastating weather events as a result of the same warm-air system, but for the most part, Canadians won’t be complaining.

"Some areas get droughts, some gets floods, but in Canada, we tend to be the beneficiary (temperature wise)," said Phillips. "The dice are loaded to give you a warmer than normal winter when you have El Nino event occurring."

Phillips said El Nino "began in earnest in July" and will likely stick around until next spring, but added that, on average, Canadians often don’t feel its effects until winter.

"I think the best money is not (put on) what the Farmer’s Almanac says," Phillips said. "But it’s not like there won’t be jacket weather."