Coronavirus: A look ahead for pandemic in Manitoba

Manitobans have started to learn to live with the novel coronavirus — but what’s next while we navigate the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic?

Although children have returned to (radically different) classrooms, much of the economy has rebounded and unemployment has dropped compared to the peak of public health mandated shutdowns in the spring, some advocates worry governments pulling back on financial supports could trigger an even tougher winter ahead for low-income Manitobans.

As the Canada Emergency Response Benefit transitions into a modified form of employment insurance at the end of the month, Manitoba’s government will also end its moratorium on evictions at the beginning of October.

Meanwhile, the number of COVID-19 infections in the province have jumped after a July lull, in large part due to significant spread in western Manitoba in August.

Since March 12, Manitoba has seen a total of 1,410 COVID-19 cases. Sixteen Manitobans have died and 1,156 have recovered from the virus.

“Many businesses are now starting to look at their reopening plans and they’re not necessarily hiring back the workers that they thought they were going to be hiring,” said Josh Brandon, a community animator with the Social Planning Council of Winnipeg — who is currently conducting research on housing.

Now, the lack of protections for renters and the precarity of low-income employment may mean people with low incomes and little money in the bank will have difficulty navigating the ongoing public health crisis and economic recovery — however long it may last.

“We have a public health crisis and overlapping that is an economic crisis. Both of those severely impact low-income people who don’t necessarily have the resources to cope with what’s happening to everybody,” Brandon said.

“We need to be doing a better job making sure that low-income people, renters, people who are experiencing unemployment as a result of this pandemic… have the supports they need.”

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Little income means little savings.

“For many low-income renters, even if they were able to hold onto their tenancy over the past few months because they didn’t have the money to pay their rent, they fell behind on rent,” Brandon said.

“They don’t have the resources now to pay back any deficit they have — so we need to see a rent forgiveness program on top of a… eviction moratorium.”

Worse yet, Brandon said, is the potential for increased homelessness.

“Just anecdotally we see more and more issues with people experiencing homelessness,” he said.

“That’s the worst-case scenario for people is they lose their accommodation, they don’t necessarily have somewhere to go to.”

The CEO of one of Winnipeg’s service providers for homeless and vulnerable people, Siloam Mission, said his organization and others in the sector are prepared for the typically increased demand over the winter months while keeping pandemic protocols in mind, but worries about more people left with nowhere to go.

“I hope I’m wrong,” said the mission’s Jim Bell.

“But people that may have been… living on the fringes previous to COVID and the complications of COVID, whether it be job-wise or mental health-wise or otherwise — the demand for services that Siloam and other organizations that provide similar services, I think is only going to increase and therefore we have to be at the ready in terms of planning.”

Economic woes

As of August, the province’s unemployment rate was 8.1 per cent — a modest decrease from 8.2 per cent in July — that’s an increase of about 8,000 jobs, 5,700 of which are part-time and 2,400 of which are full-time.

At the height of the province’s pandemic shutdowns in April, the number of unemployed Manitobans peaked at about 74,000 — but the province has since regained approximately 62,500 jobs.

That leaves approximately 11,500 Manitobans out of work now who weren’t prior to the pandemic.

“Overall, obviously the economy has taken a substantial hit,” said University of Manitoba economist Gregory Mason.

“Some of the service sectors… are still hurting and will probably continue to hurt through the winter,” he said of restaurants and retail where face-to-face contact is essential.

“That sector, I think, is in dire straits.”

But as for the longer-term recovery, Mason said, that’s dependent on whether COVID-19 can be “defeated” by a vaccine.

“The problem with a play-by-play story about things such as research and development and vaccines is that a setback is suddenly interpreted as ‘oh it’s never going to happen’. I suspect many people are beginning to think that this will be a long slog through the winter,” Mason said.

“What we’ve had is… really conflicting, wild swings of emotion and that certainly plays out in the economy and how people think about the future. I suspect many people are beginning to think that this will be a long slog through the winter and that we’re not likely to see relief for some time.”

Meanwhile, the full cost of the pandemic on government coffers won’t be known for some time, Mason said.

“You could look at the direct spending, the actual cheques being sent in terms of relief, but there’s a whole range of other costs,” he said, pointing to reduced tax revenue.

Hope glimmers

The pandemic has cost lives, livelihoods and routines.

Although the prospect of another physically-distanced winter may seem daunting, a psychologist suggests pointing to the positives to prevent anxiety.

“The toll on mental health has been incredible,” said Dr. Rehman Y. Abdulrehman, a clinical psychologist.

“Mental health is not just impacted by our genetics, but also by our circumstances, and we can imagine during these circumstances, with a great deal of uncertainty, a great deal of impact on our regular routines, the two most common mental health difficulties — anxiety and depression — are skyrocketing.”

But that doesn’t mean wallowing, solely, in despair.

“There is hope. I think we’ve done an amazing job as a civilization — if you think about all that we’ve gone through and all we’ve survived with this pandemic and all of us are still here working, we’re doing what we can, we’re parenting. I think that speaks to our capability,” Abdulrehman said.

“Not to focus on what we’ve lost, but what we’ve gained, what we’ve been able to do.”

Continue looking for new routines and ways to connect with your loved ones, Abdulrehman said.

Look for the new normal.

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