With all the opposition party leaders saying they won’t accept the federal budget in its current form, the possibility of an election looms large. But when will we know for sure? Here’s a timeline of how events could play out this week:
WEDNESDAY March 23rd
The budget debate begins. This isn’t the only test Wednesday; a vote on the contempt ruling for refusing to produce full cost estimates for crime legislation and corporate tax cuts could happen, but expect the government to push this vote off to the following week. If they do vote today and find the government in contempt it does not automatically bring down the government, it just makes it harder to justify keeping the lights on in the House of Commons.
THURSDAY March 24th
Thursday will likely bring more budget debate and potentially the contempt debate/vote. Add an opposition amendment to the budget that will require a vote and suddenly the government is faced with a confidence motion.
FRIDAY March 25th
This is a Liberal opposition day so they get the keys to the House for a few hours. The Liberals will quickly introduce a motion listing all the reasons Parliament lost confidence in the government. If it gets the support of the NDP and Bloc, expect the Tories to pull the plug. If not, it still isn’t over.
The final trip wire is a vote on the estimates in the afternoon. This is the money that keeps government programs up and running. A vote involving money is a confidence motion, so if the opposition votes against these estimates, Canada goes to the polls.
SATURDAY MARCH 25TH OR SUNDAY March 26th
If the government has lost the confidence vote, Stephen Harper would meet with the Governor General and ask him to dissolve parliament and call an election.
When will the election take place? The campaign is a minimum of 35 days, but could be longer. Likely dates include May 2nd or May 9th.
Peter is one of Global National’s correspondents based in Ottawa. Follow him on Twitter: @PeterHarris.
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