He won the battle, but lost the war.
B.C. NDP leader Adrian Dix was the only party chief who won a seat in last night’s provincial election. Yet, he ended up becoming the night’s biggest loser.
The B.C. Liberals headed by Christy Clark pulled a stunning upset over Dix’s New Democrats, who were favoured to win for quite some time.
Vancouver Sun political columnist Vaughn Palmer says the party was as shell shocked about the result as everybody else.
To get to the bottom of the big upset, Palmer says, one needs to look to the voters.
“People make up their minds in a way that – we think we can read their minds, but we can’t. This election was decided by voters in sufficiently large numbers concluding that it was not time for a change – that change was scary and that they did not want the change.”
What the Liberals did right
Palmer says the Liberals got two things right – the message and the person.
They put their emphasis overwhelmingly on prosperity, economic growth and jobs – the issues of the future.
“They picked the issue that seems to have decided the election,” says Palmer.
Then, they put their leader front and center.
“Christy Clark went through two rough years as Premier, but during that time she used to say that when you are Premier you are judged against perfection and when you are in an election, you are judged against your opponent,” says Palmer. “And she said again and again – she thought she could win that comparison shopping.”
‘Positive’ vs. ‘negative’ campaign
From Day 1, Adrian Dix insisted on running a clean, positive campaign.
The Liberals took a different road.
Weeks into the campaign, Dix’s personal character and past record were scrutinized and negatively portrayed in a series of ads.
Dix chose not to play ball, and stuck to his guns even after Clark’s infamous ‘red light’ faux-pas.
But Palmer says attack ads are nothing new and despite all the negativity, the Liberals still managed to relay their message.
“You rarely saw the Premier when she was not smiling,” says Palmer. “She was smiling, she was optimistic, she was upbeat. She kept talking about the future and jobs.”
“Attack ads work – we have seen enough of that. But I think it would miss the significance of positive side of the Liberal message in terms of reaching out to voters who were mainly concerned about their own jobs and jobs for their children.”
Was debate a deal breaker for Dix?
The April 29th debate between four party leaders was the only televised debate of the campaign. Arguably, it was also one of the few opportunities for the general public not well versed in provincial politics to familiarize themselves with the candidates.
But some argued — it was not Adrian Dix’s finest performance.
“I’d seen both candidates in action before. You tend to look at what you thought of them in the past and how their answers approved. You are listening for content,” says Palmer. “But for people who have not seen either one of them in action. I think they tuned in and they saw what Christy Clark has been saying all along – when they comparison shopped between the two of them, she was going to end up looking like a better choice than him. Whether she was perfect – was another matter.”
Future for Dix
While Dix has been re-elected in his riding, he will have a lot of soul searching to do in the weeks ahead.
For one, his future as a party leader remains unclear.
“This was his loss,” says Palmer. “This was his campaign, his strategy, his campaign manager. He chose this approach. He is the guy who did the flip-flop on the pipeline half way through. I think when you throw all that into the mix, I’d be surprised if he does not decide to hand the leadership over to somebody else.”
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