Get ready for a three-way race.
With Justin Trudeau at the helm, the Liberals would essentially tie the Harper Conservatives in decided votes if an election were held tomorrow, according to a new Ipsos-Reid poll for Global News.
And the NDP, under leader Thomas Mulcair, wouldn’t be far behind.
“It makes the House of Commons an interesting place to watch now,” said Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Reid.
The poll did not ask how the Liberal party would fare under the other leadership candidates: Joyce Murray, Martha Hall Findlay, Deborah Coyne, Karen McCrimmon and Martin Cauchon.
Bricker said they only polled Trudeau because “we know he’s going to win.” “We can pretend, like everybody else is, but what’s the point,” he said.
“He’s for real,” said Bricker. “It really is a desire to see a different kind of politics and a different kind of politician.”
Canadians “look at him and see what they want to see right now,” he said.
“Even though they recognize that there’s hype, they recognize there’s a lot driven by his father’s name, they recognize that they really don’t know anything about him, they really don’t seem to care.”
Under Trudeau, the Liberals would take 32 per cent of the vote, the poll said, compared with 31 per cent for the Conservatives. The NDP would capture 27 per cent of votes, with the Bloc Quebecois garnering six per cent, and two per cent each to Elizabeth May’s Green Party and other parties.
In particular provinces, the race is even tighter, the polls says:
- In Ontario, the Liberals and Conservatives would be in a dead heat at 35 per cent support each, compared with 26 per cent for the NDP.
- In Quebec, the Liberals and NDP would tied with 32 per cent support, with only nine per cent for the ruling Conservatives.
- In British Columbia, the NDP would maintain the lead with 36 per cent, with Conservatives at 31 per cent and Liberals with 28 per cent support.
Although there is not much difference between women and men, the poll found those over 55 preferred the Tories, while the Liberals have a slight lead over the Conservatives in the age 35-44 category. Young adults, 18-34, chose the Grits slightly over the NDP.
When it comes to those active on social media, the Liberals took 34 per cent, compared with 27 per cent for NDP and 26 per cent for Tories.
And nearly half of active social media users thought Trudeau would make the best prime minister.
In terms of leadership qualities, Trudeau also took the cake.
Bricker said it will make for an interesting dynamic in the House.
“You’ve got this new guy who’s untested, who is coming to the House of Commons with so much hope and you’ve got two other guys who are trying to trip him up.”
And Bricker said the leader who will most desperately be trying to do so is Mulcair. “When you look at all the leadership stuff, he doesn’t even come second, he comes third on everything.”
Four in ten people, or 41 per cent of respondents, said Trudeau would make the best prime minister, compared with 36 per cent for Prime Minister Stephen Harper and just 23 per cent for Thomas Mulcair. Harper’s popularity fell from 42 per cent in 2011, the poll said.
When it came to managing the economy – the number one issue for Canadians – support stayed with the Harper Conservatives. On the key trait of someone who is best to manage during tough economic times, Harper took 43 per cent. Although down seven points from 2011, Harper still beat out Trudeau at 34 per cent and Mulcair at 23 per cent.
On virtually every leadership attribute Trudeau trumped his rivals:
- Someone you can trust: 42 per cent Trudeau, 33 per cent Harper (down five points since 2011), 25 per cent Mulcair.
- Someone who will get things done: 42 per cent Trudeau, 35 per cent Harper (down nine points), 23 per cent Mulcair.
- Someone who has what it takes to lead Canada: 40 per cent Trudeau, 37 per cent Harper (down eight points), 23 per cent Mulcair.
- Someone who wants to be Prime Minister for the right reasons: 43 per cent Trudeau, 32 per cent Harper (down six points), 25 per cent Mulcair.
- Someone who has a vision of Canada that you can support: 43 per cent Trudeau, 33 per cent Harper (down six points), 23 per cent Mulcair.
- Someone who will provide an open, responsible and ethical government: 42 per cent Trudeau, 30 per cent Harper, 28 per cent Mulcair.
- Someone who will best lead and represent Canada on the world stage: 43 per cent Trudeau, 36 per cent Harper, 21 per cent Mulcair.
- Someone whose values best represent my own: 41 per cent Trudeau, 33 per cent Harper, 26 per cent Mulcair.
- Someone who will promote democracy and its processes effectively: 42 per cent Trudeau, 31 per cent Harper, 27 per cent Mulcair.
And half of the respondents believed Harper has a hidden agenda, while just one quarter believe the same about Mulcair (at 26 per cent) or Trudeau (25 per cent).
This Ipsos Reid poll was conducted between March 28 and April 3, on behalf of Postmedia News and Global Television. For this survey, a sample of 1,053 Canadians, from Ipsos’ Canadian online panel was interviewed online. The poll is accurate to within 3.4 percentage points had all Canadians adults been surveyed.