With less than a week to go before election day, François Legault’s Coalition Avenir Québec and Philippe Couillard’s Liberals are in a neck and neck race.
According to a new poll by Ipsos for Global News/La Presse, both the CAQ and the Liberals are sitting at 30 per cent support among decided voters.
The Parti Québécois, headed by Jean-François Lisée, is sitting at 20 per cent and Québec Solidaire, with Manon Massé as its leader, has 16 per cent support.
The results could mean a minority government.
A strong desire for change is in the air ahead of the Oct. 1 election, with 60 per cent saying it is time to change the government.
Quebecers are eager for something new after nearly 15 years of the Liberals in office — a tenure only briefly interrupted in 2012 by a PQ minority government — but are no longer sure how to obtain that change.
According to Sébastien Dallaire, general manager for Ipsos Quebec, Legault has lost some support, despite being seen as the main vehicle for change at the beginning of the election.
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“Everything happened around the discussion on immigration with regards to deporting people or not. What really came out of that discussion was maybe the CAQ was not well prepared,” said Dallaire.
The CAQ has lost six points in voter intentions since August. When asked which leader would make the best premier, Legault has the highest support (22 per cent), but that number is also down six points since August.
The right-leaning CAQ is losing voters to the left-wing, pro-independence Québec Solidaire.
“It is possible, in the current Quebec environment, for voters to go from a party on the right to a party on the farthest left and not really blink an eye,” said Dallaire. “The desire for change is more important in the eyes of some voters than the content of party platforms.”
The CAQ is still holding strong with the francophone vote (36 per cent), while the Liberals have half that number (17 per cent).
The Liberals have traditionally strong support on the island of Montreal, while the CAQ’s popularity has been concentrated in the “450” suburbs around Montreal and in Quebec City. Dallaire says it is possible that the Liberals could end up with a higher percentage of the popular vote, but the CAQ could still win more seats and ultimately the election.
While 52 per cent of those polled say they know for sure who they will vote for, that still leaves nearly half of voters saying they could change their minds only days before the vote.
This Ipsos poll on behalf of Global News and La Presse was conducted from Sept. 20 to 23, 2018. A total sample of 1,250 respondents from across Quebec participated either via internet panel or by telephone. The results were weighted to better reflect the composition of the adult Quebec population, according to census data. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is considered accurate to within plus or minus 3.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
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