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Canadian economy grew 0.5% in May, prompting talk of a fall rate hike

The Canadian economy rebounded strongly in May from a soft April, sparking speculation about a possible interest rate hike in the fall.
The Canadian economy rebounded strongly in May from a soft April, sparking speculation about a possible interest rate hike in the fall. Jeff McIntosh/Canadian Press

The Canadian economy topped expectations with growth of 0.5 per cent in May. The month-over-month increase was a strong rebound from a rise of 0.1 per cent in April, when harsh weather weighed on the GDP.

The May reading was two notches above the consensus expectation for a 0.3 per cent increase, according to economists polled by Bloomberg.

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Nineteen out of 20 sectors tracked by Statistics Canada recorded a pickup in economic activity. The oil and gas sector led the way with a 2.5 per cent increase. Consumer-based industries including retail and housing showed gains as well. The retail trade sector rose two per cent, its largest monthly increase since October 2017.

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Although energy-sector disruptions like the production shutdowns in Alberta’s Syncrude plant are expected to weigh on the June GDP figures, the economy is on track for the strong second-quarter growth that the Bank of Canada expected, CIBC chief economist Avery Shenfeld noted shortly after the release.

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“Barring bad news on the NAFTA or auto tariff front, the Bank of Canada will be raising rates in October, which is now our call,” Shenfeld noted.

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With files from the Canadian Press

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