The upcoming federal election in Italy might see populist parties rise to power in the region, even if they don’t win enough votes to form a government on their own.
Sunday’s vote marks the first under a new set of laws that experts say will make it difficult for any one party to form a majority government — including former controversial leader Silvio Berlusconi’s old party, Forza Italia — which has led several parties to form alliances.
The populist trend follows one that’s been surging in Europe in recent years, driven primarily by what’s been dubbed a migration crisis in the area.
Here’s how populism is playing a major role in the upcoming vote, and why the outcome of Sunday’s election could mean big changes for Italy in the years to come.
New electoral system could force a coalition
A new law passed last year calls for a combination of direct and proportional voting for members of Parliament. The lower Chamber of deputies has 630 seats; the Senate has 315 seats.
The new law calls for roughly a third of the seats to be selected by the direct “first past the post” system, with the remainder selected by proportional representation outcomes divided among allied parties and coalitions.
“It’s the first time that the federal elections in Italy are being held under those particular rules… this has a lot of implications on how the outcome tomorrow will determine whether the government will be formed or not,” said Kurt Huebner, a professor at UBC’s Institute for European Studies.
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Under the new system, not all votes will count. If a party gets less than 1 per cent of the vote, no seat is assigned. If a party gets more than 1 per cent but less than 3 per cent, that party’s vote goes to the coalition it has joined, assuming it joined a coalition before the election.
Huebner said that the new rules will make it exceedingly difficult for one party to form a majority government, meaning that a coalition government is a likely outcome.
“This will probably lead to a situation where not a single party will get the majority, not even properly a block. Now we see these kind of alliances being built — take the example of the centre-right, Forza Italia and Berlusconi with the League and this very right-wing fraternity of Italy,” he said.
Populist favour surging in Europe
The anti-establishment 5-Star Movement, the anti-migrant Northern League and the far-right Brothers of Italy are the main players in a right-wing coalition with former Premier Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party. The 5-Star Movement has a policy of refusing to be part of coalitions.
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Huebner says the Northern League could become the major power-broker in the three-party coalition, and that the 5-Star Movement, despite not aligning with any other parties, will still hold a lot of influence as a result of winning a big chunk of the vote.
Italian populism follows European trend
Populism played a role in recent votes in Germany, France and Britain, and Italy is no exception.
The parties share anti-EU leanings and have promised to crack down on immigration. Even Berlusconi has vowed to repatriate 600,000 migrants.
Populism was also a factor to varying degrees in recent votes in Germany and France, although Marine Le Pen, leader of France’s far-right National Front party, was comfortably defeated by Emmanuel Macron in last year’s presidential election.
In the U.K., migration was one of the key factors that prompted Britons to vote in favour of Brexit.
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Huebner says that racial and economic tensions both play into anti-migrant sentiment.
“There is this tendency in Europe that a critical mass of the population feel they are getting overrun. This sentiment has been exploited and used by authoritarian, rising and also populist parties,” Huebner said.
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However, he added that many far-right parties are making impractical promises — an issue the Italian electorate is well aware of.
“All these parties, including the 5-Star movement, they make enormous promises, but there’s no way to finance them. The state of public finances, plus the rules of the European Union, are all contradicting what they are promising,” he said.
“A vast majority of voters are highly skeptical. They know most of those promises can’t be realized. So the goodies they are promising are not realistic.”
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Analysts suggest that the likely outcome of the vote is a hung Parliament and a period of uncertainty.
Weeks of political haggling could ensue as parties try to line up enough support to win mandatory confidence votes in Parliament.
President Sergio Mattarella would invite party leaders to the hilltop Quirinal Palace to sound them out on possibilities for a viable coalition.
When Mattarella is convinced the formula for a new government is solid, the candidate’s name will be announced and cabinet ministers sworn in.
— With files from the Associated Press
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