Summer may be over for the thousands of students that returned to school on Tuesday, but Calgarians should expect above-average temperatures to continue until at least the end of September.
“It must be hard for kids seeing temperatures that are eight, nine or 11 degrees warmer than normal,” said David Phillips, senior climatologist for Environment Canada.
Phillips said by mid-to-late September we should start seeing a cool-down, but that temperatures are expected to remain slightly above normal.
LISTEN: Environment Canada forecasts above-average temperatures in Calgary throughout the fall
Global News weather specialist Paul Dunphy said Alberta is coming off of an “extraordinarily hot summer” because of a persistent strong ridge of high pressure parked over British Columbia and Alberta.
He said on Tuesday that daytime temperatures are expected to be around 29 and 30 C for several days, which is 10 degrees above seasonal.
“The earth still needs to cool down a little bit. We’ve been absorbing a lot of sunshine and a lot of heat over the past several months,” he added. “The ground gives off that heat slowly, so the warmer conditions will likely persist, definitely through September and likely into October – maybe even into November.”
LISTEN: Global News weather specialist Paul Dunphy expects temperatures in Alberta to remain above seasonal
Models on the Environment Canada website released on Sept. 1 suggest an 80 to 89 per cent probability that temperatures in Calgary will remain above normal for the period from September to November.
“Even in an average year, you get a dramatic cool-off from August to September and then September to October, because the days are shorter,” Phillips said. “But what we see coming up is our models seem average; a little bit better than normal.”
“Nature’s not going to punish you for all this summer weather,” he added.
Dunphy said temperatures in the fall are expected to be about five degrees above average, or higher, for the time of year.
Phillips said it is still too early to predict whether Alberta is in for a mild or harsh winter. But, both Phillips and Dunphy said there is currently no El Niño or La Niña in current forecast models.
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“Indicators would be rising sea surface temperatures in different parts of the equatorial Pacific or different temperatures – rising temperatures – down in the lower depths. Something that would indicate an El Niño is on the way,” Dunphy said.
“If it were La Niña , which is the opposite of El Niño, there could be indicators that the ocean was cooling below what was normal. But it’s right where it should be.”
“We’ll just have to wait and see,” Phillips added.
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