Quebec byelections a test for Charest’s Liberal party

LACHUTE – The way André Bernier sees it, the anger against the government bubbling in the streets of Montreal will show up in some form in Monday’s two by-elections in the ridings of Argenteuil and LaFontaine.

He’s just not sure how.

The crisis “has lasted too long,” the 79-year-old retiree says after finishing lunch with a friend at a main-street café in Lachute.

“It’s hurting business. (Premier Jean Charest is) not doing much to really settle the problem.”

Bernier, who is from Gore in the riding of Argenteuil, has voted Parti Québécois in the past, but this time is undecided.

Could that be a sign we may be in for some surprises in Monday’s results?

It would be quite an event if Argenteuil – which has been Liberal since 1966 – flipped. The same goes for LaFontaine: Liberal for 25 years.

But even if it seems there’s little chance such ridings would vote for the PQ or Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), the last federal election – which elected many Quebec New Democratic Party MPs – showed no party can take anything for granted.

Voters are in a volatile mood. And even if the ridings do stay Liberal, there are different ways voters can express their anger.

Liberal voters could, for example, stay home, cutting into traditional support for the candidate.

David Whissell, the Liberal who has held Argenteuil since 1998 but resigned in December for family and business reasons, won in December 2008 by 3,490 votes.

Or some citizens could feel safe voting against the Liberals as a way of sending a message because they know they will soon be able to correct things in a general election, which could happen as early as the fall.

If there is rancour, the PQ – as the official opposition – should be the party picking up discontented voters, which means the by-election is as much a test for the PQ as it is for the Liberals.

Failing to at least place second will look bad for PQ leader Pauline Marois, who thus far has failed to really cash in on student voters.

For the PQ, victory is not an impossible dream. In 1998, PQ candidate Denise Beaudoin came within 148 votes of beating Whissell.

And Argenteuil is 81 per cent francophone, which in theory should mean fertile ground for the PQ.

The PQ’s worst-case scenario is to place third, behind the newly minted CAQ, which is trying to elect an MNA for the first time since François Legault created the party.

The CAQ has deftly chosen a former Bloc Québécois MP, Mario Laframboise, as its candidate in Argenteuil.

Laframboise is well known in the area because he was elected four times for the Bloc in the federal riding covering the same region, Argenteuil-Papineau-Mirabel.

Legault has said he’s very excited about the by-election. He said it is “an almost historic moment,” because it’s the CAQ’s first electoral test.

The Liberal candidate this time is Lise Proulx – Whissell’s former press attaché – who has also worked in the health-care sector, while the PQ candidate is Roland Richer, a teacher.

The election seems more predictable over in the northeast Montreal island riding of LaFontaine, which came open with the resignation in May of scandal-plagued Liberal MNA Tony Tomassi.

Tomassi was fired from the cabinet two years ago and faces criminal charges of fraud and accepting a benefit.

With 47.5 per cent of the population non-francophone, the vote there has been described as a test of relations between the Liberals and the Italian community.

Le Devoir has reported that Tomassi’s father, Donato Tomassi – himself a Liberal fundraiser – expressed bitterness at the way his son and he were being treated.

While the CAQ and the sovereignist Option nationale parties are presenting candidates of Italian origin (Domenico Cavaliere for the CAQ and Paolo Zambito for the Option nationale), the Liberals are parachuting in party president Marc Tanguay. With the party apparently not believing it has a chance of winning, the PQ’s candidate, Frédéric St-Jean, has not bothered to open a campaign office.

A Liberal defeat in LaFontaine would be quite the blow. Tomassi won in 2008 by 10,181 votes, or 69.76 per cent.

But it’s unclear how much voter angst is present in these ridings, and how much the Liberals have to worry about.

Certainly there has not been much banging of pots and pans – a nightly feature now in Montreal’s downtown and Plateau neighbourhoods.

“Where are the discontented?” Le Soleil’s Gilbert Lavoie asked in a column Tuesday. “And especially where are the students who promised to mobilize to beat Jean Charest in the next elections?

“Does it mean if the Liberals win these two ridings Monday that the population is satisfied with the Liberals?”

But some voters in Argenteuil say they are upset.

“Absolutely,” responded Huquette, dropping into Lachute’s popular Tuesday flea market, when asked if voters might send a message Monday in Argenteuil.

“I’m anxious to see the results. I think (the crisis) will be a good incentive to go and vote – especially for the youth.”

Janet Bourgaize, who said she voted for Liberal candidate Proulx in advance polling in Argenteuil, said it would be a shame if her candidate lost because she knows Proulx and thinks she will make a good MNA.

“I’m not angry with the government at all,” Bourgaize said. “I went to university. I had to pay it all.”

But a few minutes later, another resident, Louise, said the Liberals have got to go.

“I think the people have had it with them,” she said.