Despite rhetoric that has been described as racist, bigoted and sexist, U.S. presidential contender Donald Trump has secured his strongest lead in the Republican nomination race to date. Thirty-five per cent of GOP members say they’ll support Trump for the nomination. That’s up 13 points since October, according to the latest New York Times/CBS poll.
Although the poll was conducted largely before Trump’s statement Monday proposing a temporary ban on Muslims from entering the United States, the poll shows a firm support for the billionaire candidate with 51 per cent of his backers saying their minds are made up about him, compared to just a quarter of voters who support another candidate.
Ted Cruz is in second place with 16 per cent support and Ben Carson has dropped to third with 13 per cent, according to the poll.
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While many Americans from both the right and the left have condemned Trump’s racially charged rhetoric, his unwavering support in the polls since mid-July shows he is resonating with voters.
One reason for Trump’s success is a failure by the GOP to address concerns inside their voter base in rational way, says Ryan Hurl, an associate professor at the University of Toronto Scarborough.
“It’s easy and partially correct to look at the support for Donald Trump and say this is just about racism and xenophobia,” he said. “But if you don’t allow the conversation to go beyond that then his supporters aren’t going to turn a critical eye on Trump. They are more likely to double down.”
Hurl said while other Republican candidates may want to address immigration or national security they have failed to do so in a way that reaches voters who have so far supported the Trump campaign.
“If you don’t find a way to address legitimate concerns … then you leave this space for Trump to come in with ridiculous claims about Mexican culture and Mexican criminality.”
The recent anti-Muslim comments from the billionaire businessman were made in the wake of the California shootings that raised U.S. fears about homegrown terrorism. Both shooters in the Dec. 2 mass shooting in San Bernardino that killed 14 had links to extremist ideology according to U.S. officials.
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The attack followed closely on the heels of the Paris attacks and led to a strong backlash against Syrian refugees.
Hurl says it’s not surprising that some voters are responding to Trump’s comments.
Stephen Newman, a political science professor at York University, says this idea of “fear” has galvanized Trump’s support.
“The ordinary Joe on the street who is scared and doesn’t know what is going on will say ‘why the hell are we letting these people into the country?… Why can’t we stop them,'” said Newman.
“Trump says things like that. And what is so disappointing in a guy like Trump is he is running to be president of the U.S. And what one expects of someone who reaches that level of politics is that they would know a little more than the frightened, uneducated Joe on the street.”
According to the recent polls, attention and enthusiasm for the campaign are higher among Republican primary voters than among the Democrats.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton continues to lead Bernie Sanders by 20 points: she receives 52 per cent of Democratic primary voters’ support, while Sanders gets 32 per cent.
The issue of immigration will likely be a leading issue in 2016 presidential election and if the GOP establishment doesn’t find a way to address Trump’s inflammatory comments they could have a difficult campaign.
“Trump is making it easy for Democrats to say if you support enforcing immigration you’re doing it because of racism and xenophobia,” said Hurl. “There can be reasons to adjust immigration policy based on the state of the economy, labour force participation or unemployment rates. That would be a debate worth having. In the U.S. Trump has made that impossible.”
The New York Times/CBS telephone poll was conducted Dec. 4-8 with 1,053 registered voters, including 431 Republican primary voters and 384 Democratic primary voters. The margin of sampling error +/- 4 per cent for registered voters and +/- 4 minus 6 per cent for Republican and Democratic primary voters.
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