QUEBEC РThe continuing crisis in the Parti Qu̩b̩cois is battering away at its support with voters fleeing in droves, a new poll shows.
And one of the big winners in the chaotic political climate is François Legault’s Coalition for the Future of Quebec.
A CROP Internet poll of 1,000 people done for La Presse between June 15 and 20 shows the Liberals now ahead in the polls with support pegged at 35 per cent. That’s a spectacular increase of 12 percentage points in only one month.
Mired in its own troubles, the PQ slipped five points over the same time frame and now is polling at 29 per cent.
The Liberals have not been this high in the polls since 2009, CROP vice-president Youri Rivest said, adding had an election been held in Quebec last week, the Liberals would have formed a majority government.
The right-wing Action démocratique du Québec party is stagnating way down at 17 per cent, the poll says.
But it is support for Legault – who has not even formed a political party – that surprises the most in the polls.
On its own and without a merger with the ADQ, Legault’s coalition would bag 40 per cent of the vote and push the PQ down to a mere 17 per cent. CROP says 37 per cent of PQ voters would transfer to Legault in this scenario.
The Liberals would place second with 26 per cent of the vote. Seventeen per cent of its supporters would go over to Legault.
Fifty-two per cent of ADQ voters would go over to Legault, leaving it a paltry eight per cent of votes.
But Legault would be even more unstoppable if his coalition merged with the ADQ, the pollsters concluded. Together, they would bag 47 per cent of the vote. The Liberals would crash to 25 per cent of the vote and the PQ 18 per cent.
“Without the ADQ, François Legault is in good position,” Rivest said. “But with the ADQ, it’s the big swing.”
Reacting to the poll Thursday, Legault cautiously downplayed the results.
In an interview with Presse Canadienne, Legault said the numbers reflect Quebecer’s desire for change, but added his coalition has a lot of work to do to rally the population to the radical and painful remedy it is proposing for Quebec.
It proposes, for example, radical budget cuts to get the Quebec deficit under control. It would slash $600 million from Hydro-Québec, $280 million from the school boards and $100 million in regional health boards.
Before getting excited about polls, he has to be sure Quebecers understand the scope of his reforms, Legault said.
Legault said he’s sticking to his plan, which is to table a final package of ideas – these will be on language and culture – in September and then launch a vast tour of Quebec to consult voters.
He then plans to present his whole action plan by the end of the year.
But Legault has also said if Premier Jean Charest was to call an election this fall to take advantage of the PQ’s disarray, he can be ready with a party.
At his news conference marking the end of the National Assembly sitting, Charest said he has no plans for a fall election. He has two more years in his mandate.
PQ leader Pauline Marois, meanwhile, continues to struggle to hold her party together. Wrapping up a PQ caucus meeting near Quebec City on Wednesday, Marois announced that there would be no more defections from the party caucus.
During the last 15 days, five PQ MNAs have slammed the door on the PQ for various reasons and one was kicked out.
Rumours continue to float that more are planning to jump ship, possibly joining Legault, himself a former PQ cabinet minister.
On Thursday, Bertrand MNA Claude Cousineau, who is said to be unhappy with the PQ, issued a statement formally denying a La Presse report saying he was thinking about joining Legault this fall.
“I am a proud member of the PQ and I intend to stay,” Cousineau said. “I re-affirmed this at yesterday’s (Wednesday) caucus and I have not changed my mind on this subject. It is thus out of the question that I join François Legault’s coalition.”
Cousineau adds he is in a period of reflection about his overall personal political future and will mull it over during the summer vacation.
In a message to his voters, Cousineau says he will stick by them and will defend the PQ’s program.
“I am a sovereignist and I am still a member of the PQ,” he said. “We are a great political party and ours is the only vehicle which can bring us towards the realization of Quebec sovereignty.”
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