VICTORIA – With a provincial election expected by late summer or early fall, B.C.’s two main political parties are locked in a dead heat, a new poll shows.
The Ipsos Reid survey found 41-per-cent support for the B.C. Liberals, and 39 per cent for the New Democrats – a two-point gap that is inside the margin of error.
The poll is the first measure of B.C.’s political scene since the Liberals and New Democrats replaced their leaders, giving a first hint at how voters are reacting to the changes.
On the question of who would make the best premier, the gap favoured the Liberals.
Forty-seven per cent of people said Premier Christy Clark would make the better premier, while just 25 per cent favoured the NDP’s Adrian Dix.
The poll also shows that more people have a positive impression of Clark than have a negative one. Thirty-six per cent of people approved of Clark in the poll, and 22 per cent said they had a negative impression.
“At this point the question is whether Clark’s leadership numbers can trump the Liberal record,” said Ipsos Reid vice-president Kyle Braid. “Gordon Campbell may be gone, but British Columbians still have concerns related to both the performance of their provincial government and their trust in the B.C. Liberals.”
On the NDP side, Dix has a higher negative rating than a positive, with 20 per cent approving of him and 22 per cent saying they disapprove.
Braid warned, however, the poll shows most people in B.C. – 59 per cent – are either neutral or have yet to form an opinion of Dix, meaning he still has time to make a better impression.
“With 60 per cent or more of the public not really having a good grasp of Adrian Dix yet, it’s got to be viewed as an opportunity for him to set a more positive image and catch up on leadership a little bit,” he said.
The poll was conducted among 1,200 British Columbians between May 9 and May 13. It is considered to have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The poll found that 10 per cent of voters support the B.C. Conservative Party, and eight per cent support the Green party.
The Conservative number represents a considerable jump for the party, which got just over two-per-cent support in the 2009 election. The party is expected to proclaim former MP John Cummins as its leader later this month.
There is no official connection between the B.C. Conservative Party and the Conservative Party of Canada, but Braid said people might have confused the two when responding.
“There’s clearly going to be opportunities for the Liberals to look at that Conservative support and try to pull some of it back,” he added, saying the same opportunity exists for the NDP gaining support from the Greens. “It’s 41-39 now. The play in those numbers may not come from people switching between the Liberals and the NDP, it may come from converting some of those Conservatives and Greens to one of the main two parties.
“It’s anyone’s race to win or lose.”
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