Ipsos poll suggests Canada more united than in 2019, despite Alberta tensions

New Ipsos polling suggests Canada is more united today than it was seven years ago, despite louder political rhetoric around separatism, particularly in Alberta.

The data, drawn from the same Confederation Stress Test survey that previously examined separatist voting intentions, indicates that several measures that were rated as high have eased since 2019.

“We’ve been tracking this for a while.… National unity in Canada and how people are feeling about Confederation, whether their province is fairly treated,” said Jack Gregory, senior vice-president of Ipsos Public Affairs.

“What we found when we looked at it this year was that some of these measures are actually down in terms of people feeling the country is more divided than ever, that their province isn’t getting its fair share.

Gregory said the findings were somewhat unexpected given current political debates.

“This was a little bit surprising for us because obviously in the current environment, there’s a lot of talk of separatism in Alberta and unhappiness with how the federation is working.”

Ipsos tracking shows that in 2019, six in 10 Canadians said the country was “more divided than ever.”

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That figure now sits at 55 per cent, according to new data.

In Alberta, where feelings of alienation have historically been higher, the shift is more pronounced.

“Eight in 10 Albertans said that in 2019 and now that number is only seven in 10,” Gregory said.

Perceptions of economic fairness are also observed to have changed.

In 2019, Ipsos found that 65 per cent of Albertans believed their province was not getting its fair share from Confederation. The new data places that number at 51 per cent.

Nationally, the comparable figure has declined from 35 per cent to 27 per cent.

Support for separation has also softened.

“The numbers saying that their province would be better off if it separated is actually lower now in Alberta than it was in 2019.”

Gregory noted that the earlier polling came during a period of heightened political tension.

“The polling in 2019 came on the heels of the election when the Conservatives were shut out west of Manitoba, and there was still a lot of talk about energy constraint, Indigenous blockades and all the things we were worried about mere months before COVID.”

While dissatisfaction remains higher in Alberta than the national average, Gregory said the broader trend points toward reduced intensity.

“For sure, there is still anger in Alberta, especially compared to the national numbers, but it is lower than it was seven years ago despite the calls for independence getting louder.”

Although the Ipsos data suggest some measures of national unity have improved, Alberta’s premier Danielle Smith argued that frustrations with the federal government remain for many in the province.

Speaking Saturday on Your Province. Your Premier., Smith said upcoming referendum questions are aimed at “strengthening our position with Ottawa.”

“I mean, that’s what the Alberta Next panel was all about, is what can we do to repair our relationship with Canada and to give people hope again,” Smith said.

Smith pointed to what she described as ongoing tensions with the federal government.

“I can tell you, Albertans do not feel undertaxed. They feel like they pay a lot of tax. But the problem is they pay a lot of it to the federal government,” Smith said

Gregory said several factors may help explain the shift in attitudes, including political developments in Alberta and broader changes in the national climate since 2020.