The deputy leader of the Ontario NDP has quit her post and changed her party affiliation as she prepares to run in a federal byelection for Mark Carney’s Liberals.
Doly Begum, who was first elected as an NDP MPP in 2018, handed in her resignation to NDP Leader Marit Stiles on Tuesday, moments before the federal Liberal party announced Begum had been tapped to carry the party banner in an upcoming byelection in Scarborough Southwest.
Stiles, who called an emergency caucus meeting with the remainder of her team, issued a terse statement which acknowledged the impact on Begum’s staff.
“This morning, I received Doly Begum’s notice of resignation as MPP for Scarborough Southwest,” Stiles said. “I want to especially thank her constituency staff who, as New Democrats, continue their excellent work serving constituents.”
Begum will run for the Liberals in an upcoming Scarborough byelection to replace Bill Blair, who was announced as Canada’s next high commissioner for the United Kingdom.
The move, NDP sources told Global News, left the party feeling blindsided and expressing a sense of outrage over the decision.
Erin Morrison, a former senior staffer with the Ontario NDP, said that while Begum has always expressed an interest in working on federal issues and foreign affairs, the party was surprised she was willing to give up her seat.
“You can see the appeal with a new government that’s got three years ahead of them, to be a part of impacting change,” Morrison, Vice President at Texture Communications, said. “I don’t think that the Ontario NDP went to bed last night knowing that they would be talking about a (provincial) byelection today.”
Erskine-Smith to run
Almost instantly, one high-profile candidate announced his intention to capture Begum’s seat from the NDP.
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Nate Erskine-Smith, currently the Member of Parliament for Beaches East-York, said he would seek the Ontario Liberal Party’s nomination to run in the Scarborough Southwest provincial byelection.
“I know that the biggest difference I can make is rebuilding our provincial Liberal party to deliver for Ontarians,” Erskine-Smith said in an email to supporters.
“To that end, I’ll seek the Ontario Liberal Party’s nomination to run in the Scarborough Southwest by-election … and I will continue to support Prime Minister Carney as an active member of our federal caucus.”
Erskine-Smith also confirmed he has been building a team to run for the Ontario Liberal Leadership, the rules of which are set to be outlined in the coming days.
“We’ve been working hard to build a provincial team that’s ready to run, win, and govern together, and the rules for the leadership race will be announced soon,” Erskine-Smith said. “When it comes to Ontario, I’m all in.”
Possible three-way race
While the Ontario NDP has represented Scarborough Southwest since 2018, political observers believe this byelection could be a hotly contested three-way race that could be won by any of the province’s three main political parties.
David Valentin, with Liaison Strategies, said while the riding has been an NDP stronghold through a number of provincial elections, byelections have always proven to be a toss up.
“If we look at byelections over the years, especially during the Ford, McGuinty or Wynne governments, this could go any way,” Valentin said. “These things are such low turnout affairs, really anyone could win.”
Strategists say all three parties have well-funded war chests, which means candidate selection could be key in determining the outcome.
Ontario’s Progressive Conservatives, for example, could tap former Toronto City Councillor Gary Crawford to run for the party again. Crawford ran in a previous byelection in Scarborough Guildwood for the PCs in 2023 and continues to play a role as a government appointee.
Erskine-Smith, who currently represents an adjacent riding, could also serve as a marquee name in the byelection race if the Ontario Liberals greenlight his candidacy.
Valentin said Stiles would also need to prove her party can beat back the Ontairo Liberals.
“I think it’s going to be a big question, is Marit Stiles able to recruit a star candidate to that riding when that person knows they may have to face Erskine-Smith,” Valentin said.
Morrison believes the stakes are highest for the NDP.
“The Ontario NDP has to hold it, they’ve held it for two terms in a row, and Marit Stiles needs to prove that the loss of Doly Begum doesn’t weaken her caucus,” Morrison said.
Begum’s decision will mean residents in Scarborough Southwest will vote three times this calendar year: in the federal byelection to replace Blair, in the provincial byelection to replace Begum and in the municipal elections scheduled for October.
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