Did the Jack Ryan thriller TV series predict the U.S. attack on Venezuela? That’s the question some social media users are asking after a video clip from the series went viral over the weekend — more than five years after it first aired.
The Trump administration on Saturday conducted a “large-scale strike” in Venezuela, which resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores.
This came after several months of the U.S. military launching strikes off the shores of Venezuela, and the previous sinking of multiple regional vessels, which U.S. President Donald Trump and his team alleged were being used to smuggle drugs.
Jack Ryan, a fictional American political thriller series on Amazon Prime, is the most recent version of the title character as written in novels by author Tom Clancy.
In this depiction, which began in 2018, Jack Ryan is played by actor John Krasinski.
During the second season of the show, which was released in October 2019, Krasinski’s character is seen delivering a presentation to a full lecture hall and poses the question to them, “What would you assume is the most major threat on the world stage?”
In response, some actors playing attendees raised their hands and gave responses including “Russia,” “China,” and “North Korea.”
Krasinski’s character then asks: “Venezuela?”
One person raises their hand.
He then proceeds to suggest why Venezuela may be one of the world’s biggest threats above those suggested previously, and especially a threat to the United States, within the narrative of the show.
“The fact is that Venezuela is arguably the single greatest resource of oil and minerals on the planet,” said the character.
The character continues, after describing the resources Venezuela has, that the country was, at the time, considered near “economic collapse,” and doomed to become a so-called “failed state.”
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“Analyst predictions, as of today, have the chances of Venezuela’s total economic collapse at 87 per cent. On the news, they’ll call it ‘a crisis,’ but on the world stage, they’ll call it a ‘failed state,’” said the character, adding, “Other examples of a failed state in recent history are Yemen, Iraq, Syria.”
Finally, the Jack Ryan character explains that the country may be used by other nations for its geographical proximity to the United States.
“Venezuela is also the only one of these places (‘failed states’) within a 30-minute range of the U.S. of next-gen nuclear missiles,” the character went on.
“The biggest players on the world stage … to them, unstable governments are nothing more than the greatest of opportunity. So, Russia and China can never be the most major threat (to the U.S.) until countries like Venezuela leave the door open to our very own backyard.”
Is there any truth to the quotes?
Although the clip may be from a fictional series, several of the sentiments are not entirely untrue, according to at least one expert who responded to the video clip with Global News.
“By some measures, yeah, Venezuela has the largest reserves of heavy crude oil in the world,” says Luis Van Isschot, a history professor at the University of Toronto.
Van Isschot also reflected on the terminology “failed state” as used in the specific scene.
“This is an interesting term — failed state. What kind of a state exists if much of the country is in fact run by illegal armed groups and criminal groups?” he says.
“Venezuela has one of the largest refugee flows out of the country in the last few years, primarily due to the economic crisis that is underway there. But does that constitute a failed state? As a historian, I wouldn’t say so.”
Van Isschot noted, though, that while other international players may have stakes in what happens in Venezuela, their focus is more likely on oil and other resources rather than posing a direct military threat to the United States, like was seen during the Cuban Missile Crisis.
What happens now?
The question now is: what happens next?
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres raised concerns on Monday about a possible intensification of instability in Venezuela after the capture of Maduro.
“I am deeply concerned about the possible intensification of instability in the country, the potential impact on the region, and the precedent it may set for how relations between and among states are conducted,” Guterres said in a statement delivered to the council by UN political affairs chief Rosemary DiCarlo.
Guterres called on all Venezuelan actors to engage in an inclusive and democratic dialog, adding: “I welcome and am ready to support all efforts aimed at assisting Venezuelans in finding a peaceful way forward.”
Lawmakers aligned with the ruling party, including Maduro’s son, gathered in the capital, Caracas, to follow through with a scheduled swearing-in ceremony of the National Assembly for a term that will last until 2031.
Delcy Rodríguez, who served as vice-president to Maduro and has vowed to work with the Trump administration, was sworn in as interim president.
She was sworn in by her brother, Jorge Rodríguez, who was re-elected as speaker.
Trump had previously warned she would face “a big price” if she did not cooperate.
In an interview on the weekend with Global News, former U.S. ambassador to Venezuela James Story said many questions remain unanswered, but the stakes are high.
“The issue here becomes how do you re-institutionalize a country after it has been basically destroyed? Those institutions have been made subservient to a small power base over the last 25 years,” he said, referencing Maduro’s authoritarian hold over Venezuelan institutions.
“How do you get judges to start judging neutrally? How do you make sure that education is being provided to everybody regardless of their political leanings? In a country in which you have to show that you’re a member of the ruling party just to get the subsidized food basket that comes out every month, how do you start over?”
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