U.S. inflation slowed unexpectedly last month, the government said in a report that was delayed and likely distorted by the government shutdown.
The U.S. Labor Department reported Thursday that its consumer price index rose 2.7 per cent in November from a year earlier. Yet, year-over-year inflation remains well above the Federal Reserve’s two per cent target, and Americans are complaining loudly about the high cost of living.
The report was delayed eight days by the federal government’s 43-day shutdown, which also prevented the Labor Department from compiling overall numbers for consumer prices and core inflation in October. Thursday’ report gave investors, businesses and policymakers their first look at CPI since the September numbers were released on Oct. 24.
Consumers prices had risen three per cent in September from a year earlier, and forecasters had expected the November CPI to match that year-over-year increase.
Energy prices, driven up by sharply higher fuel oil prices, rose 4.2 per cent in November. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, so-called core inflation rose 2.6 per cent, compared with a three per cent year-over-year gain in September and the lowest since March 2021.
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U.S. inflation is still stubbornly high, partly because of President Donald Trump’s decision to impose double-digit taxes on imports from almost every country on earth along with targeted tariffs on specific products like steel, aluminum and autos.
The president’s tariffs have so far proved less inflationary than economists feared. But they do put upward pressure on prices and complicate matters at the Fed, which is trying to decide whether to keep cutting its benchmark interest rate to support a sputtering job market or whether to hold off until inflationary pressures ease. The central bank last week decided to reduce the rate for the third time this year, but Fed officials signaled that they expect just one cut in 2026.
Kay Haigh, global co-head of fixed income and liquidity solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, warned that the November numbers were “noisy … The cancelling of the October report makes month-on-month comparisons impossible, for example, while the truncated information-gathering process given the shutdown could have caused systematic biases in the data.
“The Fed will instead focus on the December CPI released in mid-January, just two weeks before its next meeting, as a more accurate bellwether for inflation.”
Trump delivered a politically charged speech Wednesday carried live in prime time on network television, seeking to pin the blame for economic challenges on Democrats.
The speech was a rehash of his recent messaging that has so far been unable to calm public anxiety about the cost of groceries, housing, utilities and other basic goods. Trump has promised an economic boom, yet inflation has stayed elevated and the job market has weakened sharply in the wake of his import taxes.
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