2011 Election BC Ridings Analysis

In politics, not all things are created equal. And not all ridings are created equal, at least in terms of drama and uncertainty. In British Columbia, 36 seats are up for grabs in Monday’s election, but most of them will have results that are almost foregone conclusions.

Take the riding of Abbotsford, for example. The Conservative MP, Ed Fast, cruised to victory in 2008 with a winning margin of 47 per cent, or more than 22,000 votes. The Conservatives are unbeatable in ridings like that, just as the NDP is invincible in such strongholds as Vancouver East, where Libby Davies won by 37 per cent last time.

Close to 20 ridings fall into this territory, where the previous margins of victory have been so wide it’s hard to see them changing hands this time around. Ridings in the Fraser Valley, the Okanagan and parts of the Interior are, for the most part, locked up by either the Conservatives or the NDP come election time.

SAFEST SEATS

They are all held by Conservatives and the NDP, and the gaps are so large that it would take a massive shift of voters to allow another party to win.

Riding 2008 results

Abbotsford Cons. by 47%

BC Southern Interior NDP by 11.6%

Burnaby-New West NDP by 16.1

Cariboo-Prince George Cons. by 29.5%

Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon Cons. by 43.5

Delta-Richmond East Cons. by 33.7%

Kelowna-Lake Country Cons. by 40.8%

Langley Cons. by 44.7%

New Westminister NDP by 7.8% (2009 byelection)

Nanaimo-Cowichan NDP by 7.5%

Okanagan-Coquihalla Cons. by 41.5%

Okanagan Shuswap Cons. by 32%

Port Moody-West-PoCo Cons. by 32.3%

Prince George-Peace River Cons. by 46%

Richmond Cons by 19%

Skeena-Bulkley Valley NDP by 13.4%

S. Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale Cons. by 35.8%

Vancouver East NDP by 37.2%

Victoria NDP by 17%

The remaining 17 ridings have races that appear less certain in terms of outcome. . I’ll save the potentially closest races for last. The Interior races may prove more interesting this time if the NDP’s vote increases significantly, and the Conservatives go down. The outlying regions can, at historic moments, turn on a government in an instant, and that is where a large anti-government and/or anti-establishment sentiment can be tapped into (that’s why the old Reform party swamped the old Conservatives). Another thing to keep an eye on is the combined NDP/Lib vote in 2008. If that total exceeds the Conservative vote by a significant amount, the NDP may be able to win seats that didn’t seem possible a few weeks ago if its candidate attracts enough Liberal support.

POSSIBLE (BUT UNLIKELY) UPSETS

On paper, the Conservatives have to be favored to win all these ridings, but a significant shift in voting patterns (which seems to be happening in some parts of the country) make these races potentially close:

Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo – The Conservatives won this by a 10.3% margin (5,608 votes) over the NDP in 2008. But a shift of Liberal votes to the NDP, coupled with a slight Conservative decline, could give the NDP this seat.

Kootenay-Columbia – The Conservatives won this by a large margin (37% and 14,510 votes) last time, but long-time incumbent Jim Abbott has retired and I’m hearing rumors something is stirring out there. An NDP win would be a long-shot, but the departure of a veteran MP can change the dynamic of a race.

Nanaimo-Alberni – The Conservatives won this easily (14.9% and 9,250) but this riding cuts through strong NDP territory provincially. The combined NDP/Lib vote does not exceed the Cons vote, so the Cons would have to slip some here to lose.

Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission – The Conservatives beat the NDP by 18.8% (9,618 votes) in 2008, which is a large margin. But this riding encompasses two provincial ridings: one held by the NDP, the other where the NDP lost by less than 100 votes. It’s often folly to compare provincial results over federal results, but the NDP thinks it has an outside chance here.

Fleetwood-Port Kells – this should be a safe seat for Nina Grewal for the Conservatives, as she won last time by 18.6%. But the combined NDP/Lib vote here exceeds her total, and that could lead to an upset NDP win for its candidate, Nao Fernando..

West Van-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky – another apparently safe Conservative, held by John Weston. But last time Blair Wilson took 14% of the vote as the Green candidate, and that won’t happen this time. Lib+NDP+Green vote in 2008 equaled 55%, compared to Cons 45%.

MARGINALLY SAFE

Saanich-Gulf Islands – This riding attracts national interest because some Eastern-based media are convinced that “Gulf Islands” means “Green party breakthrough.” Plus, national Green Party leader Elizabeth May is running here this time around. But the Conservatives have won every single poll on the Islands for years (because there are way more retired lawyers, doctors, dentists and judges living there than green hippies.) And North Saanich has some of the most expensive homes in Canada. Gary Lunn has a formidable election machine, so he should hold off May. Still, the Greens have released a poll, commissioned by their party, which indicates May has a slight lead on Lunn among decided voters.

North Vancouver – This should probably be put in the safe column because of the apparent weakening of the Liberal vote. The Conservatives won this by 4.9% last time over former Lib MP Don Bell, but the NDP is nowhere here so the Tories should be able to hang on (unless the Lib vote hemorrhages entirely to the NDP candidate).

Vancouver Centre – People have counted Liberal Hedy Fry out before, but she keeps winning (by 9.4% last time). She has beaten proven winners: former provincial B.C. Liberal MLA Lorne Mayencourt and former NDP stalwart Svend Robinson. She has the best chance of any Liberal of winning, but if she goes down it will be evidence of the complete collapse of the federal Liberals. Fry took 34.5% last time, while the Conservatives received 25% and the NDP grabbed 21%.

Vancouver-Kingsway – Don Davies won this seat for the NDP by 6.1 per cent (2,769 votes) in 2008, and he’s squaring off against the same Liberal opponent (Wendy Yuan) this time around. The riding’s large immigration population (54 per cent of the riding, twice as high as the provincial average of 27 per cent) and Yuan’s South Asian heritage injects an unusual variable into this contest.. As well, Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff chose to visit the riding in the final week of the campaign, which suggests the Liberals think this one is winnable.

IN PLAY

Burnaby-Douglas – The NDP won this by a razor-thin margin last time (less than 800 votes) and don’t have the incumbency advantage (Bill Siksay retired). The party should be favored to win with political science professor Kennedy Stewart, particularly since it will likely attract former Liberal voters, but the Conservatives have a strong candidate in Raymond Leung, who almost won last time. .

Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca – Keith Martin won this by 69 votes last time and now he’s gone. His departure upsets the apple cart here. He kept winning elections under three different party banners, proving he had a personal following that trumped party loyalty among voters. It may look like a three-way race, but it’s hard to see the Liberal vote going up with Martin now gone, suggesting it may really be a two-way race between the Conservative Troy DeSouza and the NDP’s Randall Garrison.

Newton-North Delta – Liberal Sukh Dhaliwal won fairly comfortably (5.5%) last time, but the NDP is running former BC Teachers Federation president Jinny Sims and she’s fairly confident as well. But the Tories grabbed more votes than the NDP last time, so this is an uphill fight for Sims.

Surrey North – The NDP has been targeting Con incumbent Dona Cadman for some time, and she only won by 1,100 (3.2%) last time. She’s a very weak, invisible MP (the Surrey Now newspaper recently ran the headline “Desperately Seeking Dona”) and the NDP candidate, Jasbir Sandhu, is well known in the large South Asian community here. The NDP also held the riding before Cadman’s win. Expect New Democrats to pull out all the stops here on Election Day and get their vote out. This riding ranks as Job One for New Democrats when it comes to picking up new seats.

Van Island North – This seat has bounced back and forth between the Conservatives and the NDP the last few elections. John Duncan won decently last time (4.4%; 2,497), but the NDP should put up a good fight here. Harper dropped in here on the weekend, which presumably was designed to shore up his support there.

Vancouver Quadra – The Liberals’ Joyce Murray had a comfortable victory margin in 2008 (8.7%). If the Liberals can hold onto their voter base in the province she should be able to retain her seat, but any softening of party support could hurt her big time. The Conservatives’ Deborah Meredith, who ran last time, is a strong candidate.

Vancouver South – Ujjal Dosanjh won by just 20 votes last time but the controversies dogging his Conservative opponent, Wai Young, at the end of the campaign may be enough to allow him to hang on here. Dosanjh cannot afford any vote slippage, and he may benefit from NDP voters switching to him as an anti-Harper strategic vote.

So how will it all come out after the polls close? In B.C., the Conservatives should be in the 17-25 seat range, NDP between 8-17, and Liberals 1-4. At least, that’s my prediction.