A group representing almost 100 of Canada’s universities is warning the impact from the federal government’s cap on international students will be “far greater” than what Ottawa aimed for.
Gabriel Miller, president of Universities Canada, told Global News when the schools officially finish counting how many students have arrived and enrolled, there will be at least a 45 per cent drop of international students. The final tally will be reported in October.
“There’s every possibility that it’s going to be even worse than we fear,” he said in an interview Saturday. “But it’s important to note that we’re already in territory that no one anticipated and that needs to set off a big alarm bell in Ottawa that we need to start turning this around right away.
The national cap was laid out in January by Immigration Minister Marc Miller, who at the time said would reduce the intake by 35 per cent over the next two years, adding the measures were temporary.
It was put into effect as a way to quell the rapid increase in the number of international students, citing pressure on housing, health care and other services.
The minister said the cap was expected to result in approximately 364,000 approved study permits in 2024. That number has since been revised with about 292,000 approved permits anticipated.
Though the cap is national, those provinces that had seen the most “unsustainable growth” in intake will have to cut the number of students more than other jurisdictions.
Canada's colleges, institutions expect even bigger drop
While Canada’s universities could see at least a 45 per cent drop, the group representing the country’s colleges and institutes says they’re anticipating a 54 per cent decline.
“It’s quite clear that there’s been a very significant and substantial decrease in enrolment across the country,” Michael McDonald, director of government relations for Colleges and Institutes Canada, told Global News.
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He said part of the issue is that the cap created uncertainty for many international students when applying for schools. When students then receive offers from different countries, a lack of clarity from Canada could mean students will choose other countries to attend university or college.
Loss of international students impacts schools ability to deliver
Miller said Universities Canada is concerned over the impact the cap could have on future enrolment, saying international students are a “huge asset” to schools. He said they “enrich the educational experience,” as well as contribute funds to provide education to Canadians and are economic contributors to the country.
“That collateral damage (the cap) is going to hurt our ability to compete for the people we wanted to keep and the people we need to attract in the future to our universities,” he said.
According to McDonald, when it comes to colleges and institutes, there will be a lower amount of funding available to utilize for equipment and trainers at the various schools.
“So welders need benches, nurses needs facilities that are critical to be able to train those roles, and that takes space and those are expensive,” McDonald said.
“International students at their core, when they were coming into the country made programs viable and they made the ability to host another cohort.”
In a statement to Global News, the minister’s office said since the cap was put in place they had seen a decrease in intake and approvals compared to the same period in 2023. However, they added as the cap has not been in effect during the busiest season for study permit processing and issuance — August and September — it is too early to fully assess data and analyze any impact on study permit applications.
“The full effects of implementing the cap will be more accurately represented in statistics on study permits when we tally the total number of study permits issued for the fall 2024 season, as well as considering those for the winter 2024 season, and once students start to arrive,” the minister’s office wrote, adding it would not speculate on enrolment.
Schools in multiple provinces have expressed concerns over the cap since the announcement, with several universities in Atlantic Canada telling the Canadian Press in July they had already seen a drop in enrolment.
Nova Scotia, for example, had accepted less than 4,000 international students for the upcoming school year — down from the 19,900 students seen in 2023. Though, it was noted that the number of students enrolled in programs compared to those offers sent is actually relatively low meaning there could be even less than 4,000.
University of Manitoba president, Michael Benarroch, told Global News the cap’s having a big impact on the school’s bottom line, with a potential seven-per cent decrease overall this year due to less tuition received from students — resulting in a possible $7 to $8-million hit to its budget.
Miller said Ottawa needs to ensure no more restrictions are put on international university student requirements, including work permits or further changes to the cap. As well, Universities Canada wants to see the government “immediately pivot” to starting a global marketing campaign to “restore Canada’s reputation” as a place for the world’s “best and brightest.”
“We can’t wait to treat the patient until it’s dead,” he said.
— with files from Global News’ Uday Rana and The Canadian Press
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