Donald Trump’s historic conviction in the New York state hush money case on Thursday raises several pressing questions about his personal and political future as he continues to run for president.
The 12-person jury found Trump guilty of all 34 counts of falsifying business records to cover up payments meant to silence damaging stories during the 2016 U.S. election campaign, making Trump the first former American president ever convicted on criminal charges.
Trump confirmed Friday he will appeal the conviction, a process that could take years to make its way through New York’s judicial system.
Here’s what may happen next, what the conviction could mean for his White House bid and even if he can still come to Canada.
Will Trump go to prison?
We won’t know until July 11, when Judge Juan Merchan is scheduled to issue a sentence. Prosecutors and the defence will request what they each see as the most appropriate sentence.
Manhattan district attorney Alvin Bragg would not answer questions Thursday if prosecutors will seek prison time.
The charges Trump was convicted of, 34 counts of a Class-E felony of falsifying business records, carry a possible sentence of up to four years in prison each, to a combined maximum of 20 years behind bars.
But Trump’s age at 77, the non-violent nature of the crime and the fact this marks his first-ever criminal conviction means it’s unlikely he will face jail time. Instead, he could be sentenced to one or a combination of other penalties including home confinement, fines, probation, or potentially community service.
For now, Trump remains free on his own recognizance.
Before sentencing, Trump will be interviewed for a pre-sentence report that Judge Juan Merchan will use to help decide his punishment. The report is typically prepared by a probation officer, a social worker or a psychologist working for the probation department who interviews the defendant, and possibly that person’s family and friends, as well as people affected by the crime.
Pre-sentence reports include a defendant’s personal history, criminal record and recommendations for sentencing.
Can he still run for president?
Yes he can.
There is nothing in the U.S. Constitution that explicitly forbids a convicted felon from running for — or even winning — the presidency or serving in office.
Trump meets the only established criteria: he’s a natural-born American citizen who has lived in the U.S. for at least 14 years, and is older than the minimum age of 35.
He would also not be the first convicted felon to run for president. In 1920, Eugene V. Debs ran as a socialist candidate and garnered almost a million votes — about three per cent — despite being imprisoned on charges he violated the Sedition Act for criticizing America’s involvement in World War One.
Trump’s daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, who serves as co-chair of the Republican National Committee, told Fox News on Thursday that Trump would hold virtual rallies and campaign events if he is sentenced to home confinement.
Can he still vote?
Yes — as long as he’s not in prison.
Although his home state of Florida restricts felons from voting, Florida law defers to other states’ disenfranchisement rules for residents convicted of out-of-state felonies.
In Trump’s case, New York law only removes the right to vote for people convicted of felonies when they’re incarcerated. Once they’re out of prison, their rights are automatically restored, even if they’re on parole, per a 2021 law passed by the state’s Democratic legislature.
That means even if he is sent to prison in New York for a short sentence in July, he could still vote for himself in Florida if he is released before the election.
Can he travel to Canada?
That remains to be seen. Under Canadian immigration law, anyone over the age of 18 who has been convicted of a crime can be deemed “criminally inadmissible.”
That person would have to convince an immigration officer that they are deemed rehabilitated, meaning enough time has passed since finishing their sentence and they have not committed any further crimes. The officer’s decision would also depend on the crime itself.
Convicted felons can also apply for rehabilitation five years after the end of their sentence, or a temporary visa within that five-year timeline.
If Trump is elected president, the government may waive those conditions for diplomatic purposes.
Three dozen other countries also bar convicted felons from entry, including the United Kingdom, Japan, Israel, South Korea and India — all of them major U.S. allies.
Can he pardon himself?
No. Presidential pardons only apply to federal charges and convictions, leaving state cases like the one in New York that led to Thursday’s conviction out of bounds.
It’s a legally untested question as to whether Trump would even have the power to pardon himself if he’s convicted in the federal cases. No president has attempted to do so while in office because no president before Trump had ever been charged or convicted.
Will he win?
It’s impossible to say.
The first major poll conducted after the verdict, from Ipsos and Reuters, showed U.S. President Joe Biden with a two-point lead over Trump. That’s within the margin of error but also up two points from another Ipsos poll two weeks prior.
But even with that poll factored in, FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average still shows Trump about 1.5 points ahead of Biden.
The Ipsos poll released Friday also found one in 10 Republican voters say they are less likely to vote for Trump following his conviction.
A recent ABC News/Ipsos poll found that only four per cent of Trump’s supporters said they would withdraw their support if he’s convicted of a felony, though another 16 per cent said they would reconsider it.
—With files from the Associated Press