VANCOUVER – Premier Gordon Campbell’s resignation and turmoil in the NDP have led to a reversal of political fortune in B.C. politics with a new poll giving the B.C. Liberals a five-point lead among decided voters.
The poll released Wednesday by Mustel Group found that the B.C. Liberals are supported by 41 per cent of voters compared with 36 per cent for the NDP.
The same survey also found that Christy Clark enjoys more support than her rivals in the B.C. Liberal leadership race among general voters and party supporters.
Mustel Group principal Evi Mustel said the survey is the first poll showing the B.C. Liberals ahead of the NDP since the Campbell government introduced the unpopular harmonized sales tax after the 2009 election.
The Mustel survey result is an almost complete turnaround from a poll conducted a month ago which found NDP support at 42 per cent with the B.C. Liberals at 37.
Mustel said the B.C. Liberal rebound is due to a move by female voters – the key swing demographic in provincial politics – away from the NDP.
The B.C. Liberals were backed by 39 per cent of female voters compared with 36 per cent for the NDP in the new Mustel poll.
This narrow gap stands in sharp contrast to the previous Mustel poll in November which gave the NDP support from 47 per cent of women compared with 30 for the B.C. Liberals.
The gender gap in B.C. politics, with women favouring the NDP and men backing the B.C. Liberals, no longer stands, said Mustel.
“Historically, when the B.C. Liberals are doing well in the polls they have the support of women, but when they start falling, it’s usually the women that go first.”
Mustel said that Campbell’s resignation, the subsequent B.C. Liberal leadership race with two female candidates, plus the crisis over Carole James’ leadership, are probably the factors behind the marked erosion of NDP support among women.
The pollster cautioned that James’ resignation as party leader is likely not a major cause of the NDP’s slide in support among women. She noted that James and Campbell share the same dismal approval rating, just below 30 per cent, in the Mustel Group’s two recent polls.
“Her approval rating was usually higher than her disapproval rating but it switched in our November poll. And in our latest one, it’s eroded even further.”
Former deputy premier Clark enjoys a strong lead over her leadership opponents, according to the Mustel poll, with support from 27 per cent of all voters, followed by Kevin Falcon at 11 per cent, George Abbott at 10 per cent, Mike de Jong at seven per cent and Moira Stilwell at two per cent.
When first and second choices are combined among all voters, Clark has the support of 37 per cent, compared with Abbott at 22 per cent, Falcon at 19 per cent, de Jong at 18 per cent and Stilwell at five per cent.
Among Liberal supporters, Clark leads again at 46 per cent, followed by Falcon at 35 per cent, Abbott at 30 per cent, de Jong at 24 per cent and Stilwell at four per cent.
Pollster Mustel said Clark has “a head start in the race because of name recognition.
“But I also believe that people were more inclined to support someone from outside of the government because of the baggage over the HST.”
Nevertheless, added Mustel, anger over the HST has dissipated because of the referendum on the tax scheduled for September 2011.
The telephone poll was conducted between Dec. 3 and Dec. 12 among 500 British Columbian adults and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
Meanwhile, B.C. Liberal leadership candidates continue to push policy positions.
De Jong said Wednesday that the voting age in provincial elections should be lowered from 18 to 16 to spur political interest among young people.
The former attorney-general said Wednesday that the low rate of participation among youth in elections is alarming.
“In general, half the people no longer vote. And among young people, less than a quarter of those eligible vote and that can’t continue,” said de Jong.
“And unless we take some steps to create a culture of engagement and involvement, it will continue.”
Clark and Abbott said they too favour reducing the voting age.
“I’ve been an advocate of more inclusive politics,” said Clark, “and lowering the voting age is one way of including more people in the process. It’s the reason I’m running.”
Abbott said the decline of voter participation is a serious problem. “We need to find ways to re-connect with the public and engaging with students at a younger age may be one of the ways to do that.”
Both Abbott and de Jong criticized Clark’s recent statement that she would consider sending the province to the polls, instead of waiting for the 2013 general election, if she becomes premier early next year.
De Jong said the four-year election date brought in by the B.C. Liberals in 2001 should remain in place.
“I was very proud of our government when we made that decision. It represents a huge surrender of tactical advantage but in my mind elections shouldn’t be about trickery or about having elections when the government feels its most favourable.”
Abbott similarly said he has yet to hear a “sound reason” for breaching the four-year election cycle. He also said that Clark is underestimating the distrust many voters have for the B.C. Liberal government.
“We have a lot of work to do as a government to win back the support of British Columbians.”
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