The Ford government‘s attempts to free itself from the Greenbelt scandal may have magnified the long-term effects of Ontario’s housing crisis, according to a report from an influential development group.
A recent report written for the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD) found the Ford government’s decision to cancel expansions to urban boundaries could intensify the housing crunch by the year 2051, as the province’s population and housing needs continue to grow.
“The reversal of taking out lands that were identified for housing has now caused a major problem going forward.” said urban planner Matthew Corey, who studied the amount of available land in Ontario on behalf of BILD and determined the decision will “quadruple” the crisis.
As the province works to address the housing crisis, Premier Doug Ford seems to be working on two distinct timelines: the need to build 1.5 million homes by 2031, and planning for housing construction 20 years beyond that timeline.
By the year 2051, the Ontario government estimates the provincial population will grow by at least 7 million people, an increase from 15.5 million in mid-2023, underscoring the need for long-term planning.
Despite the concerns of urban sprawl, internal provincial documents indicated the Ford government felt the expansion of urban boundaries to make land available for development was necessary to accommodate the incoming growth.
“We have a responsibility to act in the long-term interests of Ontarians to ensure there will be enough places for families to call home,” the government said in an internal communications document obtained by the NDP.
In order to prepare for the long-term housing need, the government decided to open 4,700 hectares — or approximately 11,000 acres — of land across the province by mainly expanding the urban boundaries of Barrie, Belleville, Guelph, Hamilton, Ottawa, Peterborough, Halton, Niagara, Peel, Waterloo, York and Wellington County.
In December, in the wake of the Greenbelt scandal, the Ford government reversed course on the boundary changes, punting the decision to remove the land back to the municipalities.
The BILD report suggested reversing urban boundary expansions may have cost Ontario 250,000 new homes over the long-term.
“We found there was absolutely a shortfall of land — in the end, it will be around 10,000 hectares that are short,” Corey, a principal at a planning and consulting firm retained by BILD, said.
Corey said the decision by Ontario’s new housing minister Paul Calandra to roll back those expansions has complicated its targets and made the situation worse.
“Even though the province had been making great moves toward getting housing supply and getting to the 1.5 million homes they need,” he added.
When Calandra reversed the boundary expansions, he said staff under the previous housing minister were too involved in the changes to urban boundaries. Many municipalities, including Hamilton, have said the boundary expansions were not needed to build housing.
Critics, including Ontario Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie, backed the flip-flop, saying local officials should be allowed to control their own planning decisions.
A spokesperson for Calandra’s office said they were clear local governments had a key role to play in bringing more housing online.
“Our message to municipalities has been that we all have a role to play in fixing the housing supply crisis,” the spokesperson said.
Corey, however, said the argument Ontario has enough land to hit its long-term goals misses a fundamental point: not everyone wants to live in a condo and not every inch of existing cities will be redeveloped.
He said his analysis for BILD suggests there is still a strong appetite for single and semi-detached homes and not enough land to build them.
Corey said reversing urban boundary expansion has left Ontario around 250,000 homes short of where it needs to be, something he described as “almost a quadrupling of the housing crisis” by 2051.
He suggested the province was “knowingly and purposely” making the housing crisis worse.
The spokesperson for Calandra said the government is “more committed than ever” to its goal of building 1.5 million homes.
“Our government has been clear that we are more committed than ever to building at least 1.5 million homes by 2031,” they said.
“Our message to municipalities has been that we all have a role to play in fixing the housing supply crisis.”
The spokesperson said the province is “revising provincial changes” to official plans, including asking municipal officials for feedback.
Tim Hudak, former PC leader and president of the Ontario Real Estate Association, said the lesson from the Greenbelt scandal for the Ford government was not that it should back away from significant changes.
“It’s a demonstration that you need to have a clear and transparent process,” he said, referencing urban boundary expansion as an important option.
“What it is not is a reason to leave tools in the toolbox.”
— with files from The Canadian Press
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