The latest poll by Mainstreet/iPolitics suggests the Liberals remain in the lead in the Nova Scotia election but the margin has shrunk since the previous poll about two weeks ago.
The Liberals lead with 37 per cent support among decided and leaning voters, dropping three percentage points, while the Progressive Conservatives have increased their position by four percentage points to 34 per cent. The NDP remains in third, gaining a point to bring them to 25 per cent. The Greens have lost some support dropping to four per cent.
Mainstreet Research executive vice-president David Valentin said the movement follows the leaders’ debate held last week.
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“It’s really interesting to me that there has been a shift, not really in Halifax where we’ve seen the Liberal number start off weak, then it solidified, it seems to be remaining strong as a result of splits, but when you look at outside of Halifax, outside of Cape Breton the PCs are really doing much better there,” Valentin said.
Though he said it’s still difficult to tell, a minority government is possible. The last minority government in Nova Scotia followed the 2006 election, with the PCs forming a government.
A party needs to obtain 26 seats to form a majority.
“It’s possible just because of the way that incumbents perform versus the regional numbers,” Valentin said. “I don’t think it’s the most likely outcome at this point, but I do think it’s definitely a possibility.”
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A random sample of 1,200 Nova Scotians was surveyed from May 23.
The undecided rate has dropped significantly since the poll held May 10-11, with only 15 per cent of Nova Scotians unsure who they would vote for.
Mainstreet says the survey’s margin of error is +/- 2.81 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Election day is May 30.
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