Tuesday — yes, another “Super Tuesday” — will see the Republican voters in five states choose who they want to be president. And if they choose Donald Trump, that could give him an nearly insurmountable lead.
Ohio and Florida are the two most important states: Florida senator Marco Rubio and Ohio governor John Kasich want to win their respective home states and the two states are the first of nine winner-take-all states up for grabs.
In Florida that’s 99 delegates and 66 in Ohio.
If Trump wins both states, there’s little else the remaining candidates can do to stop the billionaire from clinching the nomination. Trump has 469 delegates going into Tuesday’s races and needs 1,237 to clinch.
READ MORE: Donald Trump stands by campaign rhetoric amid violence at rallies
Second place Ted Cruz, with 370, could close the gap with wins in Ohio and Florida, but that’s unlikely — he’s a solid third in either state. Rubio is in third with 163 delegates, Kasich is fourth with 63 delegates.
It’s not looking sunny for Rubio in the Sunshine state
Things don’t look good for Rubio. A Momouth University poll released Monday put the senator even further behind Trump — even among people who think he’s done a good job.
Trump had 44 per cent support of “likely primary voters” and they were mainly Hispanic and Cuban; Rubio is the son of Cubans immigrants.
The senator, according to the Monmouth poll, has 27 per cent support among likely primary voters, down three points from the week before, when he was only eight points behind Trump.
So banking Rubio to beat Trump in Florida is not a good bet.
Could fourth-place Kasich be Trump’s spoiler?
For those hoping to stop Trump, that leaves Ohio and fourth-place Kasich. But he hasn’t won a single state.
The Monmouth University poll found Kasich had a five-point lead on Trump in the state, with 40 per cent support – five points ahead of Trump.
READ MORE: ‘Go to Auschwitz’: Trump supporter to protesters outside Ohio rally
“Kasich is in a better position to win Ohio than Rubio is to win Florida,” writes FiveThirtyEight’s Harry Enten, noting the governor did well in Kentucky and Michigan counties that neighbour Ohio.
FiveThirtyEight’s Enten also notes Rubio’s communications director Alex Conant even said on CNN those people looking to stop Trump should vote for Kasich in Ohio.
READ MORE: How the Republican Party could stop Donald Trump on the convention floor
Kasich didn’t return the favour to Rubio’s camp in Florida, according to CNN, even though he admitted he’s not even trying to win the Sunshine State.
It’s too late for him to get the delegates he needs to win the nomination outright. But that might be ok for people looking to stop Trump.
“Plan B is denying Trump the delegates he needs to win the nomination and trying to re-frame the debate from here to Cleveland as a fight for the heart-and-soul of the Republican Party is emerging as one of the better opportunities for the candidates still in the race,” Kevin Madden, an adviser to 2012 presidential nominee Mitt Romney, told Ohio’s Columbus Dispatch
“Cruz did his part by winning Texas and Oklahoma. Rubio needs to win Florida and obviously John needs to win Ohio,” the Columbus Dispatch reported Republican consultant Charlie Black saying.
Whether he’s the overall front runner or not, Trump knows he could be in trouble — at least if his Twitter account is any indication.
Trump spent the day going after Kasich on his always active Twitter account.
Kasich doesn’t appear to be taking the bait.
Follow @nick_logan
!function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?’http’:’https’;if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+’://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js’;fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, ‘script’, ‘twitter-wjs’);
Comments