Transcript Season 4 Episode 37

 THE WEST BLOCK

Episode 37, Season 4

Sunday, May 24, 2015

Host: Tom Clark

Guest Interviews: Jason Kenney, George Petrolekas,

Frank Graves, Elly Albolm, Tom Lawson

Location: Ottawa

On this Sunday, ISIS is gaining ground in Iraq and Syria, is it time for the coalition to change tactics? Defence Minister Jason Kenney will join us.

Plus, the middle class, every politician wants it but exactly who is it and how can it be reached?

And the, we’ll strike a different chord, Plane Talk with Canada’s top soldier, General Tom Lawson.

It is Sunday, May the 24^th and from the nation’s capital, I’m Tom Clark. And you are in The West Block.

Well the US led coalition in Iraq and Syria has suffered what it admits are setbacks at the hands of ISIS. Last week, the Iraqi city of Ramadi fell to ISIS and at the same time in Syria, ISIS captured the ancient city of Palmyra, extending its control to about 50 per cent of Syria.

Joining me now with the Canadian view of what’s going on, Defence Minister Jason Kenney from Vancouver. Minister thanks very much for being here.

Jason Kenney:

Thank you, Tom.

Tom Clark:

So, ISIS has taken the city of Ramadi, the city of Palmyra and Fallujah apparently is in lock down and it could be next. Are you concerned that the coalition strategy simply isn’t working?

Jason Kenney:

Well, look at it this way, the organization ISIL has lost about 25 per cent of its territory since the international coalition began its military campaign last October, and they’ve a lot of personnel and a lot of equipment but we would never expect a campaign of this nature to move in a simple straight line. There are always going to be setbacks. Unfortunately there has been one around Ramadi and that is yet another reason why the Iraqi government has to redouble its efforts to ensure unity and proper command on the part of the Iraqi security forces. Canada and the international lines were never going to get involved in the ground war. The Iraqi Army should be able to defend its own territory. We’re there to support them from the air and I can tell you this, had we not be doing so for the past several months, the situation would be far, far more grave than it currently is.

Tom Clark:

Are you confident that even Baghdad is secure at this point?

Jason Kenney:

We have no reason to believe otherwise. Many of the strongest elements of the Iraqi Army have been deployed to defend the region around Baghdad since last autumn.

Tom Clark:

We all know that it takes a long time to build an effective army but look, if airstrikes are good but of limited value and the Iraqi Army right now isn’t as effective as necessary, walk me through what happens next.

Jason Kenney:

Well Prime Minister Harper and I were in Baghdad a couple of weeks ago, meeting with the relatively new Prime Minister al-Abadi, who is working very hard to create unity amongst the various factions in Iraq to bring new professionalism to the commanders in the Iraqi Army to unite Shia and Sunni, Kurds and Arabs and Syrians, and all of the different confessions and communities within the country. That’s ongoing work. You know, the United States is leading the international aspect of the coalition and they’re working closely with the Iraqi military, encouraging them not just of course to put up a stronger defence but also, when appropriate to launch a counter offensive against ISIL.

Tom Clark:

But to be sure, you said definitely no more troops Canadian troops on the ground beyond the ones that are already there in a training capacity, right?

Jason Kenney:

Absolutely not, we’ve been clear about this from the beginning. We have no interest in risking the lives of Canadian ground troops in an actual combat operation on the ground. The Iraqi Army has the resources and personnel where they should be able to protect their own territory.

Tom Clark:

Okay, I just want to shift gears for a minute to an announcement, or rather a re-announcement that your government made last week about more money for security forces to among other things, apprehend Canadians going off to join ISIS, but what seems to be missing in all of this, is some sort of national strategy to prevent them from being radicalized in the first place. Where’s that?

Jason Kenney:

Well the Government of Canada published a Whole of Government Counter-Terrorism Strategy publically back in 2012 which also involves anti-radicalization work. Perhaps the most important aspect, you know the way I look at this is first of all, we as a country, have to maintain our approach to pluralism being a generous minded country, characterized by religious freedom and pluralism so that no one has an excuse to become so alienated. Secondly, we have to… our police and then security agencies must continue working on relationships of trust with affected communities and they’ve been effective in that, which is why tips and information coming from community leaders, parents, mosks and others have helped us to attract and deter potential terrorist attacks. Thirdly, I think it’s unrealistic to suggest that the Government of Canada can actually get involved in the work of countering the theological narrative of armed jihad because the state and its organs, the agencies of the state have no credibility with the people who believe that they are as locked in a war with the so-called infidels. And so that has to come… that kind of deprogramming or counter radicalization work really has to come from within communities and it most effectively happens from those who are doing so, on their own with their own resources. The moment they start receiving a government cheque, they don’t have the credibility with the kind of young people who are susceptible to radicalization.

Tom Clark:

Okay, we’ll leave it at that. Jason Kenney thanks very much for joining us.

Jason Kenney:

Thank you very much.

Tom Clark:

Well, not everyone agrees with the minister’s positive picture of how things are going in Iraq. I spoke with retired Colonel George Petrolekas, former military advisor to the chief of the defence staff. And he said, Iraqi forces are not really up for the task and efforts by the coalition are simply not enough to stop ISIS fighters from moving around freely. When asked for the one thing that the coalition can do to turn things around, here’s what he had to say:

George Petrolekas: At least to achieve the stated aims of degrading and destroying in Syria but… degrading it in Syria and destroying it in Iraq, the immediate thing would be to  increase the number of aircraft that are available to provide 24 hours persistent coverage as opposed to coverage based on intelligence identified targets.

Tom Clark:

So the question remains though, is there the political will to do that? You can find more of Petrolekas’ analysis on our website: www.globalnews.ca/thewestblock

Well, still to come, Plane Talk with General Tom Lawson. But first, the middle class: are you part of it and is it falling behind? And how are political parties going to swing middle class voters to their side? That discussion is next.

Break

Tom Clark:

Welcome back. The middle class, it’s a group you’re going to be hearing a lot more about in the coming months as every political party tries to win its affection. But what exactly is the middle class? The polling firm, Ekos has done some research on this and here it is, your West Block primer:

For most people, middle class is a state of mind. It’s the promise of the good life. A good stable job, having enough money not just for what you need but for what you want, It’s a happy rich retirement, and most importantly, it’s trusting that your kids will have an even better life than you did. But recent polling suggests that the middle class just isn’t living the dream. More and more are worried that their jobs are in danger. There’s a growing fear about running out of money during retirement and a declining belief that their kids will do better than them. And the majority of Canadians say if things don’t change, we could be headed towards a violent class conflict.

Well joining me now, the man behind that research, Frank Graves the President of Ekos Research. Frank good to have you here.

Frank Graves:

Pleasure.

Tom Clark:

You’ve said that being middle class is sort of a state of mind, more than anything else but let’s just start off, how many people self-identify as being middle class? And importantly, how many people want to become middle class?

Frank Graves:

Well good question because it’s a bit of a movable piece right now. Historically, and one of the reasons all the parties chase the middle class because it’s the largest spectrum, most people. Well there have been times where 80 per cent of Canadians and Americans have defined themselves in middle class. When we started…we look at our data from the beginning of this century, we found that about 70 per cent of Canadians, which is the same number we saw in the United States, define themselves as middle class members. That number has dropped in both Canada and the United States in lockstep to just below 50 per cent. So, just to put that in numeric terms, in the United States, there would have 60 million people fell out of the middle class, maybe 6 million in Canada. Interestingly, none of them were moving upwards into the upper classes. The movements were all downwards into the working class and the poor.

Tom Clark:

So, you also discovered, and we saw this, that the middle class dream is turning into a nightmare, at least there’s a lot of anxiety in the middle class right now. So what does that do to them politically because the politics of fear would suggest that if you’re afraid, you don’t change your vote, you stay with what you’ve got? Is that what you’re finding?

Frank Graves:

Well, that’s true but we sort of have almost a two edge sword here because messages around the middle class can be steeped in messages of fear. Let’s not lose whatever we have, things are tough, but also there’s a broad desire for a more aspirational measure…an aspirational treatment which says, you know the whole middle class bargain which underpins the success of Canada and the united States in the 20^th century, particularly the last half, was something which was based on the idea that if I work hard, if I come up with a better mouse trap, if I innovate, then I will have a secure life. I will maybe get a house, a car, I’ll do better than my parents, my kids will do better than me and I’ll retire in security. That’s all been displaced. Now, after a long period stagnation for most people, a declining in pessimistic middle class has replaced that optimistic growing middle class and people now look at the future very darkly. Only 13 per cent of Canadians think their children are going to do better than them. Well, that was the whole idea of progress. The whole notion of progress was that shared capitalism would produce a better life if you played the game.

Tom Clark:

So if you have that type of anxiety then, politically where does your head go?

Frank Graves:

This is the key question and that’s why when we actually analyze who thinks the best plans… what is the best play for the middle class, the public really have no clarity on this issue right now. They’re hearing what they find to be reasonable ideas from all of the main parties. But I do believe that ultimately this will be the sorting mechanism which will determine, even if it’s not explicitly in that language. Some people will talk about average Canadians, will talk about the Canadian dream or are the working class but the idea of who can restart progress in a sense that it was familiar to Canadians in the last century is, I think the one who’s probably going to win this election because the sense that looking backward in the rear view mirror, most people only see, you know the stagnation, some see decline. Very few see progress but when they look into the future, that grey picture becomes almost black. And they really desperately want to know that someone can fashion some sort of a blueprint, a plan, and execute something to restart things, to get things working the way they used to work. And that’s not purely nostalgia. People know that the ways that the middle class was created in the 20^th century are no longer available. But the middle class, by the way, was not a spontaneous creation. It just doesn’t emerge naturally. After the great depression, governments did all kinds of extraordinary measures, including importing a social safety net, trade unions were created, monopolies were destroyed; high schools never existed before that. These things were very big acts that produced…and then the war and the new deal. Where are the big ideas for the 21^st century to get things going for this century?

Tom Clark:

So it is the big idea. Frank Graves we have to leave it there but thanks very much for dropping by. I appreciate your time.

Frank Graves:

My pleasure.

Tom Clark:

Well, starting tomorrow you’re going to see a new ad on TV. It’s from the NDP and guess what they’re talking about? Here’s a part of it:

Tom Clark:

Well, the middle class. Joining me now is Elly Albolm of Earnscliffe Strategy Group and also an advisor to a number of politicians. Elly thanks very much for being here. So, Tom Mulcair is self-identifying as being middle class, which is something that neither Stephen Harper nor Justin Trudeau can do. But from a strategic point of view, if somebody comes to you, politician comes to you and says look, I’ve got a question for you Elly. I want to hire you, how do I reach the middle class? And you’ve got a couple of options in front of you, Tom Mulcair’s example being one. Where do you begin that conversation with a politician trying to get to the middle class?

Elly Albolm:

Well, you begin with which part of the middle class do you want to appeal to and what votes do you want to appeal to? Middle class is a very broad concept. It’s really a psychological concept more than it is an identification concept. Either people aspire to be the middle class or they’re in the middle class but ultimately they’re all different. They’re single parent families, double income families. They’re people with lower income, people with higher income. Ultimately, you’re looking for a coalition that will vote for you.

Tom Clark:

Okay, but how do you put that coalition together and how do you get to them? I mean the Conservatives are doing it old school. They’re just sending people money in the mail.

Elly Albolm:

Yeah, well, yes, except that they’re targeting pretty hard…pretty carefully. So they’re looking for suburban Canadians. They’re looking for primarily nuclear families with two parents; one of them stays home from work so they can income split. They’re looking for families with children, most of their money is gone to… benefits the kids’ use as opposed to what adults use. And they’re not spilling much money on lower income Canadians. They’re looking for a 37-38 per cent share of the voting population, disproportionately drawn from that group.

Tom Clark:

And that’s a good point because if you take a look at any of the parties and if we assume that they’re all around 30 per cent or close to it, they’re in that neighbourhood.

Elly Albolm:

Right.

Tom Clark:

To be elected as government, even a minority government, you don’t need 50 per cent of the vote or a 100 per cent of the vote. You need maybe 3 or 4 more per cent.

Elly Albolm:

Right.

Tom Clark:

And that’s why you’re saying micro target.

Elly Albolm:

Yes. And frankly, this middle class stuff, is…it’s a defensive proposition. You don’t want the other person to represent the middle class, but then it gets all three represents the middle class it ceases to become an issue and then what you’re really looking for is ways of appealing to voters within that broad grouping that’ll pick you as opposed to someone else.

Tom Clark:

So then of all the strategies, I mean the Liberals are doing the, you know soak the rich and not give to the poor but to give the middle class. As I said, the Conservatives just send people money, as Tom Mulcair self-identifies. If you were trying to target one area, what would be the most effective, in terms of the advice that you’d give?

Elly Albolm:

Again, not resisting your question, it’s a question of what your research has showed… who are the people most likely to vote for you and who are the people that you can convince within that broad grouping. And I’m not sure the NDP pool is the same as the Liberal pool which is the same as the Conservative pool. I think they all have programming differences, policy differences, maybe some ideological differences. So what you try to do is neutralize the other person’s advantage and provide some value-added yourself. I’m not sure simply saying you’re middle class, suddenly creates affinity among all those people who believe they’re middle class. So… so what? You know you can say I’m a man. Does that mean that only men will vote for you? I’m not sure that, you know simply paying for hockey games and art lessons is enough to convince people that you have their interests at heart. I think Trudeau’s approach is interesting. I’m not sure it’s very well understood. He’s actually giving more to the lower end and less to the upper end. As you said, I’m not sure it’s stealing from the rich but it’s redistributing income. How well it’s understood and what the real difference is, is not all that clear, right? Sorry?

Tom Clark:

No, I was just saying, unfortunately we’re going to have to leave it at that point but you’ve made an interesting point, that there isn’t one middle class. There are probably a thousand of them out there.

Elly Albolm:

Right.

Tom Clark:

Elly Albolm thanks very much for joining us. I appreciate your time.

Elly Albolm:

Thank you.

Coming up next, Plane Talk with Canada’s top soldier, General Tom Lawson.

Break

Tom Clark:

Welcome back. He served as the commander of the Canadian Forces for nearly three years now and he’ll take his last salute this summer. But before that, General Tom Lawson agreed to join me for a little “Plane Talk”. Take a look.

General Tom Lawson welcome to Plane Talk.

Tom Lawson:

Thanks, Tom.

Tom Clark:

Good to have you up. Now, I don’t know if you’re used to airplanes or not?

Tom Lawson:

Tom Clark:

One or two I guess.

Tom Lawson:

Yeah, I got a few hours on them. Not too many this small though.

Tom Clark:
General, what do you think is the biggest threat to Canada right now?

Tom Lawson:

Well, you know Canadians are pretty secure in this country. We’ve got big wide tank ditches between us and any other continents called the Atlantic and the Pacific and another one to the north. So I think likely, and I wouldn’t pick a better country to be in, but I think likely our greatest threats are those that come from nature: fires, floods, hurricanes. But if you’re talking manmade threats than I would think probably some sort of cyber threat to our systems, our energy systems, our computer systems, things that we bank on that would change our way of life very, very quickly.

Tom Clark:

What is your greatest personal extravagance?

Tom Lawson:

I made a big mistake when I was a kid, when I was in high school. I learned how to play guitar and then was teaching while I was in high school and bought an electric guitar that was the wrong electric guitar and the guitar shop owner said listen, you should sell that back to me and I’ve got a great price for you on a Gibson Les Paul. And I turned him down flat. I didn’t have $700 dollars and there was no way I was going to put that kind of money out.

Tom Clark:

Wait a sec; I just want to be clear about this, you turned down a chance to buy a Gibson Les Paul?

Tom Lawson:

Well, I didn’t have the money. I was making $3.50 an hour working for him so you know, $700 bucks, you do the math and that’s a year’s worth of lessons. So, I lived without that guitar for the next 35 years and when I was down in the States, I finally went and bought the Gibson Les Paul Sunburst – $2,400. So there it is.

Tom Clark:

And you play it to this day?

Tom Lawson:

I do.

Tom Clark:

If you had a time machine, what time in history would you go back to?

Tom Lawson:

I grew up on World War II stories, Tom. My dad flew Spitfires and Mustangs and the chance to experience what he’s experienced and I’ll share with you that if there was such thing as a good war, I think he had it. Three years flying these things, had a lot of close calls, lost a lot of friends but was shot at, had some holes in his airplane but never hit. So it kind of, you know instilled in the desire to experience that. I think I would pick that excitement of that period where our grandfathers, where our fathers and grandfathers were fighting for our freedoms.

Tom Clark:

This leads to my next question and maybe you just answered it, but who is your greatest hero in real life?

Tom Lawson:

Well, I do think of my father. He passed about four years ago and a quiet man but a wonderful man. But, if I go back further in history, you’ve got to pick someone like Winston Churchill for his pugnaciousness and his eloquence. If I come into modern era, I just have the utmost admiration for His Excellency David Johnston, who is just such a fantastic governor general but in this job of mine as chief of defence staff, he told me on the first day, come any time I could be of any use to you. And since that day, he’s been so generous with his time. I’ve probably had 15 breakfasts with him and maybe 20 meetings and just a chance to talk to a man who’s experienced so much and done so much in his life is a fantastic thing.

Tom Clark:

What does an old chief of the defence staff do after you’re no longer CDS?

Tom Lawson:

Normally what we do is, get checked out at Rockcliffe Flying Club and become instructors there.

Tom Clark:

Do you think that you might be tempted by political life? Would you ever want to run?

Tom Lawson:

No, I don’t think so. I look at—it’s a mean game. It’s a mean game.

Tom Clark:

Yeah.

Tom Lawson:

And the individuals who are in it, I’ve seen the hours they’ve put in. I’ve seen the hours—I used to fly them in Challengers. I see what they’re doing now, when messages come in from various ministers I’ve had at whatever time at night, whatever time in the morning and I think we as Canadians, as much if not more than any other nation, I’ve seen have a distinct cynicism towards our elected officials and so I admire them for what they do, but I don’t know about the reward at time in my life getting into something like that.

Tom Clark;

General Lawson said that as yet he’s got no plans for the future, no job offers to consider but he’s open to all ideas.

Well that’s our show for this week, have a great week ahead. We’ll see you back here next Sunday.