Dalton McGuinty’s Liberals won a minority government in the Ontario election, following a campaign filled with dramatic shifts in support from the Progressive Conservatives to the Grits.
Global News spoke with Simon Kiss, a political scientist in the journalism department at Wilfred Laurier University, to get his analysis of the election outcome.
Global News: Did anything catch you by surprise tonight?
Simon Kiss: I was surprised to see the Liberals so close to the Progressive Conservatives in terms of the popular vote. The Liberals won 38 per cent of the popular vote, compared to 35 per cent for the PCs.
The polls were all over the map – The Liberals seemed to be doing reasonably well and the Conservatives had stumbled.
GN: What went wrong for Hudak?
SK: Hudak may have been a victim of vote splitting or of an “inefficient vote,” meaning he was able to get a lot of votes in ridings, but those ballots didn’t materialize into seats.
Another thorn in the PC leader’s side was that he didn’t run the most sophisticated campaign. It didn’t leave people much to work with. He tried to paint McGuinty as the taxman, but didn’t offer any solutions on the issue or tell voters how he planned to make up lost revenue from tax cuts.
GN: What is the biggest hurdle facing McGuinty?
SK: Faced with a minority, McGuinty could have trouble finding support for his budget and a throne speech. I don’t think there will be any internal threats, but finding support from the other parties could be a hurdle.
GN: What do you think of the NDP’s performance?
SK: I think the NDP did quite well. Their popular vote was as high as it’s been since the mid-90s – the strong NDP showing is one of the reasons the Liberals dropped to a minority. The NDP’s showing also highlights issues with the first past the post system.
Proportional representation is dinging the NDP. They had 23 per cent of popular vote, but they’re getting about 16 per cent of available seats.
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