New Brunswick Premier Blaine Higgs is scheduled to shuffle his cabinet Tuesday, which one political science expert says is an opportunity to put some of his party’s internal strife behind him.
Two ministers quit cabinet this month, both protesting Higgs’s leadership style and changes made to the province’s policy on sexual orientation in schools.
Over the weekend, the Progressive Conservative provincial council had a “particularly turbulent” meeting, said John Williston, the party’s vice-president for the Moncton and Albert County area.
“The premier was very, very agitated — in an angry state,” he said in an interview Monday. “It was quite a piece of drama.”
J.P. Lewis, political science professor at the University of New Brunswick Saint John, said the cabinet shuffle could help Higgs re-establish the upper hand. But questions remain.
“We don’t know how much (the caucus) will continue to be a problem for Higgs, even if he solves one problem with appointing a new cabinet,” Lewis said in an interview.
Dorothy Shephard, who served as social development minister, resigned on the floor of the house June 15 after voting with the opposition to call for more consultation on changes to the provincial policy on sexual orientation in schools, known as Policy 713.
She said she stepped down not just because of changes made to the policy but also because of Higgs’s habit of dismissing input from cabinet and the Progressive Conservative caucus.
In an October 2021 letter to the premier released by Shephard last week, she said he was an impediment to his own success.
“It is obvious: you do not trust any of your ministers, me included,” she wrote. “You do not trust your staff in the premier’s office. You do not trust the civil service. You micromanage to such a degree that you paralyze initiatives from getting across the finish line.”
On Friday, Labour Minister Trevor Holder resigned, saying that under Higgs the caucus has been less about consensus and more about the premier getting his way. Higgs has shown a lack of empathy and an inability to lead the province because he doesn’t listen to his party members, Holder said in his resignation letter.
Lewis said bringing in new ministers is the “only option” left for Higgs, because it gives the premier a chance to change the narrative after weeks under siege.
But cabinet shuffles carry a risk, he noted, if members who have remained loyal don’t get a promotion. “Are there other demotions from cabinet — does that lead to more discontent? I mean, there’s a lot of political challenges for the premier at this moment.”
Williston called the cabinet shuffle a futile measure. He noted that 28 Tory riding presidents out of 49 have signed letters calling for a leadership review. Three ministers — including former education minister Dominic Cardy, who stepped down in October — have resigned, and five others voted with the opposition on Policy 713.
“I find it impossible to imagine how the premier will be able to pass legislation in the house,” Williston said. “I think that the inevitability here is that he has to resign. That’s just a simple statement of facts.”
However Jordan Manzer, director of the Carleton-York riding association and a Higgs loyalist, said the weekend meeting turned confrontational because Williston tried to introduce discussion of a leadership review, which was not on the agenda. Manzer noted it takes two-thirds of the provincial council — which is composed of riding presidents, nine regional vice-presidents, five members of the legislature and Higgs — for a review to move ahead.
Higgs enjoys support from “quite a few” of the party members, especially from southern New Brunswick, Manzer said.
“There’s not 66 per cent supporting (a leadership review.) I don’t think we are going to get to that number,” he said. “And even if you were to get to that number, it still would have to go to the party membership for an ultimate vote.”
He is hopeful a cabinet shuffle will bring new voices to the table and help the party move past recent disagreements.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 26, 2023.
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