The Manitoba government under former premier Brian Pallister fought for years to reduce the deficit, and in 2019 finally posted a modest budget surplus — the first in a decade.
But belt-tightening is no longer top of mind, with both the finance minister and current premier indicating they’ll be announcing ways to make life a bit more affordable.
“The government has signaled a deficit, so that to me indicates that they’re going to be looking to cut taxes, and at this point, tax cuts are not the way to go,” said Molly McCracken, Manitoba director for the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives.
“We have a huge surgical backlog for health care here in Manitoba, plus a whole number of others needs (such as) preparing for climate emergency that need public attention and public investment.”
Rather than outright cutting taxes, McCracken says the government could begin by tying social programs to the rate of inflation.
“Right now if you’re on social assistance or welfare … what you get for food is not indexed to inflation at all, so people are getting less and less and we know food costs are rising,” McCracken said.
Another strategy, McCracken said, could be to raise taxes on larger corporations and direct that money to services people need, such as public transportation and education.
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“Let me tell you, I’m not picky. Help is good wherever it comes; if it comes on sales tax, education taxes, income taxes, whatever,” said Todd MacKay, prairie director with the Canadian Taxpayers Federation.
“Let’s just get a little help out there. At least show that the government understands what people are going through.”
Relief for Manitobans in any form would serve a dual purpose, MacKay explained, since people could spend that money on “a new deck, a new car, maybe a new business and get their neighbours back to work.”
“That’s how you rebuild,” MacKay said.
But, he also stressed the need for financial prudence, after two years of the COVID-19 pandemic blowing holes in budgets everywhere.
“Of course, there’s going to be some expenses associated with backlogs in health care, but you’ve got to find ways to save money elsewhere. That’s what the rest of us do,” MacKay said.
“What we’re seeing from some governments is spending more on the priorities and spending more on everything else. That’s not prudent.
“We can do two things at once. We can chew gum and walk.”
For Josh Brandon with the Social Planning Council of Winnipeg, affordability is a “critical issue,” and Tuesday he’s going to be watching for government plans that specifically support those in the lowest income bracket.
“We really need to see a focus on poverty reduction in this budget,” Brandon said.
“We need to see some significant investments in housing (and) in health, especially for people who are very low income on social assistance through the EIA program. They haven’t seen an increase in over 20 years for their basic needs allowance.”
Ideally, he’d like to see government programs that push the province closer to something akin to a universal basic income.
“We’ve seen some investments in child care and those are starting to happen here and that needs to become a universal program,” Brandon said.
“We have good hydroelectricity here that’s still relatively affordable compared to other provinces, but we know that some of the moves the province has been making are creating greater unaffordability for hydro as well. Those are some areas that we’ll be looking for in this budget.”
As is typical, finance minister Cameron Friesen was mum on specific budgetary details when questioned by reporters Monday.
However, he emphasized the government would have as much money available as needed to support Ukrainian refugees who come to Manitoba.
Manitoba’s 2022-23 budget will be released Tuesday.