Two Calgary-area Progressive Conservative MLAs in the Stelmach government are crossing the floor to join the upstart Wildrose Alliance, in what is the first set of defections from the Tory party during its 38-year reign over Alberta.
The Wildrose Alliance has called a press conference for today in the city where it will announce Airdrie-Chestermere Tory MLA Rob Anderson and Calgary-Fish Creek PC MLA Heather Forsyth are abandoning the Tories to join the right-of-centre party led by Danielle Smith.
“It’s no surprise to anybody. We’ve known this was going to happen,” said Paul Stanway, communications director for Premier Ed Stelmach.” But we’ll reserve any comment until after their announcement (today).”
The floor-crossings will boost the Wildrose caucus to three MLAs – along with Paul Hinman, who won a September byelection in Calgary-Glenmore – and catapult the small-c conservative alternative past the NDP as the third party in the legislature.
Anderson and Forsyth couldn’t be reached for comment late Sunday, although party sources confirmed they are, indeed, joining the Wildrose Alliance.
“This is the game-changer in terms of the legislature,” reasoned David Taras, political analyst at the University of Calgary.
“There’s the sense that Stelmach is losing control of the government and losing control of the cabinet. People are searching for the life raft. For these two at least, this is their life raft.”
Taras said the loss of two MLAs “is not the end of the world,” but is nevertheless a further blow to a Conservative government that is slowly self-destructing.
The Tory defections come as recent polls have shown Stelmach is the least popular premier in the country and that his PC party has slipped to its lowest public support in 17 years – a distant second behind the Wildrose Alliance.
The moves also come about a week before Stelmach is expected to shuffle his cabinet, part of the changes he promised after receiving a 77 per cent vote of confidence in the Conservative leadership review two months ago.
Anderson is a first-term MLA and member of the government’s powerful Treasury Board committee, while Forsyth is a former cabinet minister who was first elected in 1993.
Both MLAs haven’t been afraid to speak out against the Tory party in recent months, with Anderson – an original member of the government’s so-called Fiscal Four – demanding more fiscal discipline from cabinet and Forsyth criticizing the effects of health care policy decisions on Calgary.
“After being in politics for eight years, nothing surprises me,” Battle River-Wainwright Tory MLA Doug Griffiths, a member of the Fiscal Four, said when hearing two MLAs were bolting the PC caucus. “I’m not the least bit surprised about anything that happens.”
The departures will be a historic event in Alberta.
Alberta MLAs have sometimes been ejected from the Conservative caucus, as Fort McMurray MLA Guy Boutilier was last July. Several former and current Tory cabinet ministers – including Aboriginal Relations Minister Gene Zwozdesky, Stan Woloshyn and Ray Speaker – have left other parties to join the PCs.
But since the Conservatives were first elected in 1971, it’s believed no MLAs in good standing with the Tories have ever left voluntarily to join the caucus of another party (MLA Gary Masyk left the Tories to join the then-Alberta Alliance in 2004 after the government removed his seat from the electoral map).
“I would see it as the beginning of the end for the Conservative party, if it indeed does happen,” said former Bonnyville Tory MLA Ernie Isley, who jumped ship to the Wildrose Alliance because of concerns with Stelmach’s leadership.
“It might be a wise move for some young fiscal conservatives that want a future in politics. The future of the Conservative party is looking awful dismal right now.”
Isley cautioned, though, the Wildrose Alliance must present itself as a viable governing alternative that is just slightly right-of-centre on the political spectrum. The party also must be careful how it manages the crossovers so as not to be painted as a protest party, he argued.
“We need to be moderate … We can’t be viewed as just a protest fringe movement if we hope to form the government,” he said. “I don’t think they want to just throw their arms open and say that anybody that wants to come can come.”
Taras said the Wildrose Alliance will now have a platform in question period with three MLAs, although Smith must look at getting elected as soon as possible if her party is to be seen as a legitimate alternative to the government.
“There’s going to be a sense she should be in the legislature too,” he said.
Smith and the Wildrose party have been the main beneficiary of sliding government support.
A recent Angus Reid poll of 1,000 decided Alberta voters found the Wildrose party would form the next provincial government if an election were held, nabbing the support of 39 per cent of the electorate. Stelmach’s Progressive Conservatives tied for second with David Swann’s Liberals, with the backing of 25 per cent of decided voters provincewide.
The Tories slipped to third place in the poll in both Calgary and Edmonton amid challenging economic times, and continued public criticism over the government’s financial management, health-care decisions and H1N1 vaccination rollout.
A separate Angus Reid opinion survey showed Stelmach’s approval rating steadily eroded in 2009, plunging from 43 per cent in February to 25 per cent in August and to 14 per cent in November.
The premier, however, has gone on the offensive recently, attacking the Wildrose party for what he said are vague and “draconian” policies.
jfekete@theherald.canwest.com
dbraid@theherald.canwest.com
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