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Deficit in Saskatchewan forecast to be $381.5M lower than estimated

WATCH: Saskatchewan's finance minister says the provincial economy has performed better than projected in the June budget, forecasting a deficit more than $380 million lower at fiscal year-end. But as Roberta Bell reports, this assumes there won't be another full lockdown. – Nov 27, 2020

Saskatchewan’s finance minister says the province’s economy has performed better than anticipated since she tabled her budget in June.

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Donna Harpauer said she is now forecasting the deficit for 2020-21 to be $381.5 million lower than budgeted.

The deficit is now forecast to be $2 billion for the fiscal year.

“Real GDP is forecast to decline 5.0 per cent, compared to a decline of 6.3 per cent forecast at budget. Saskatchewan’s unemployment rate was the lowest in Canada in October and total employment, on an unadjusted basis, is nearing pre-pandemic levels,” Harpauer said Friday in a statement.

“As a result, our planned path to balance in 2024-25 is unchanged.”

The Saskatchewan Party pledged during the recent election campaign to balance the budget by 2024 with a surplus of $43 million.

The debt as a percentage of GDP is forecast to be 19.6 per cent as of March 31, 2021, the lowest among the provinces.

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However, officials said the full economic recovery is tied to COVID-19 outcomes.

Real GDP is forecast to increase by 3.4 per cent in 2021. Higher potash production, a rebound in uranium production and a global recovery will be key contributors to growth, officials said.

“As reflected in these latest forecasts, our government is managing the province’s finances carefully through the pandemic,” Harpauer said.

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“The mid-year update also includes $260 million of contingencies to cushion against potential pandemic-related revenue and spending shocks over the remainder of the fiscal year.”

Spending is forecast to rise by 0.8 per cent to $16.2 billion, Harpauer said, due to increases to the health, education, municipal and tourism sectors.

Revenue is projected to increase 3.7 per cent to $14.2 billion, which is being attributed to higher federal transfers, higher government business enterprise net income and higher non-renewable resource revenue.

Tax revenue is $41 million lower than estimated which Harpauer said reflects the government’s commitment to reduce the small business corporate income tax rate.

Harpauer said her projections also included the estimated $133 million in platform promises made during the provincial election.

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Among those promises are reducing SaskPower bills by 10 per cent for one year, restarting the community rink affordability grant and bringing in a home renovation tax credit.

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