With a surprising win from former vice-president Joe Biden and the Democratic primary field shrinking after the exits of billionaire Tom Steyer, South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg and Minnesota senator Amy Klobuchar, the past weekend was an eventful one in American Democratic politics.
However, these early elections are only the warmup for “Super Tuesday” and the bulk of the Democratic primary calendar.
Tuesday, March 3 — Super Tuesday — is the single biggest day of voting in the U.S. primary calendar. As the candidates race to secure the 1,991 delegates to the Democratic National Convention needed to secure the nomination, the 1,357 delegates up for grabs on March 3 represent a substantial prize.
Before Saturday’s strong showing for Biden in South Carolina, Senator Bernie Sanders appeared to have an increasing lock on the lead after ties of victories in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. That calculus may have been altered after Biden’s decisive victory in the Palmetto State. Now, Super Tuesday will answer two important questions about the shape of the Democratic nomination.
First, does Sanders, despite the South Carolina results, have a lock on the lead?
Sanders, a democratic socialist, has popular grassroots support across the United States and strong minority backing, particularly among Hispanic voters. The Ipsos Political Atlas national polling data put Sanders in a substantial lead nationally. He is projected to win Super Tuesday’s progressive northern states and California, with most of its 415 delegates.
If Sanders wins half or more of the Super Tuesday delegates, he most likely has a clear path to the nomination. If he falls a bit short of the majority, our second question becomes more important:
Will the rest of the field narrow to a single alternative to Sanders?
Biden is still expected to be competitive with Sanders in more conservative counties and states like Alabama and Texas. Yet that moderate vote could be split among the remaining moderate candidates, preventing Biden from building up a solid delegate lead against Sanders.
For instance, Mike Bloomberg, a billionaire who has sunk US$464 million into his campaign and a national ad spending blitz, could siphon off votes that might otherwise have gone to Biden on Super Tuesday. Elizabeth Warren remains in the race and also looks to pull in additional support during Super Tuesday.
If Sanders does not overwhelmingly win — and if Biden, Bloomberg or Warren somehow pull out convincing wins — the rest of the Democratic primary will be characterized by a one-on-one matchup between Sanders and the alternative. At this point, forecasting the future of that race is very cloudy.
Whoever emerges from Super Tuesday will come away with more than delegates alone. They will emerge with new momentum around their campaign and a convincing narrative that they are best positioned to take on President Donald Trump in the general election. And finding a candidate who can beat Trump is the Democrats’ number one priority this year.
On Super Tuesday, the electorate will begin to tell us who they think makes the best case.
Chris Jackson is Vice President with Ipsos Public Affairs (U.S.) in Washington, D.C.