While New Brunswickers are enjoying lower fuel prices compared in recent months, that won’t last, according to a senior petroleum analyst.
Dan McTeague of Gasbuddy.com says minor fluctuations are expected over the next couple months, but the price is expected to climb again, possibly reaching highs set four to five years ago.
“We’re suggesting that 2019 will be as expensive, if not more expensive than 2018,” he says, “meaning gas prices could hit levels, on average, that are highest for drivers here in New Brunswick going back to 2014.”
“We are on track to seeing a slight increase in January, a slight increase in February, maybe up or down…,” he says. “I think $1.25 would be the number you start to see come April, especially as we head towards Victoria Day in the summer… I wouldn’t be surprised to see $1.30, $1.35.”
READ MORE: Gas prices likely to rise in ‘wild, bumpy’ 2019: fuel expert
He says the reasons the cost will be going back up can be attributed to oil prices on the rise, increasing demand, an increased cost to make gas in the summer months and the federal carbon tax.
Since Oct. 11, the maximum cost for a litre of gasoline has dropped from $1.32.6 to $1.04.7, meaning savings of almost 28 cents per litre.
Meanwhile, diesel prices have also dipped, although not quite as much; the October high was set at $1.45.0, while the maximum cost set January 3 are now at $1.22.7.
McTeague says simply put, plunging oil prices lowered fuel costs.
“If you look at the price of oil, which governs pretty much everything – all transportation fuel, jet fuel, locomotive fuel, oil, diesel, gasoline, gas oil – all of it related to oil, it’s dropped about $33 a barrel,” he says.
While the drop is appreciated by many, how much of an impact that decrease has can vary.
“A one-cent increase or decrease can mean hundreds of thousands of dollars for companies,” says Jean-Marc Picard, the executive director of Atlantic Provinces Trucking Association.
But while a bit of relief can be felt for truckers, Picard says it’s not the same as the average consumer.
“We’ve got a mechanism in place for the industry that’s called the fuel surcharge,” he says. “That’s in direct correlation of the price of diesel, so that goes up and down as the price of diesel goes up and down.”
Cab drivers have also been feeling the positive impact of the decreases.
“When you drive a lot and use a lot of fuel, it makes a big difference … even a couple of cents,” says Vicente Hennep.
“Everybody’s struggling to make a living.”
WATCH: Fuel analyst predicts wild and bumpy ride for 2019 gas prices
Hennep says he made trips to Halifax, Bathurst and Charlottetown when prices were higher in October. But he says the savings are felt based on the average week.
“Probably $40… that’s a lot for one week,” he says. “That’s just the price difference; it makes a big difference.”