Bill Kelly: Could the NDP win the battle, but lose the war

What a difference a week makes.

Seven days ago, one election poll had pegged NDP support at 47 per cent of responding voters, which put them into the realm of a substantial majority government.

More recent polls have taken the air out of that balloon and suggest NDP support is closer to 37 per cent, but that’s still ahead of the PCs and way ahead of the fading Liberals.

While the NDP is surely pleased with the surge in support, the ongoing concern is where that support is concentrated.

It appears that the traditional NDP strength in the north will be maintained, and they seem to have growing support in southwestern Ontario, but they don’t seem to be able to make significant gains in the 905 area and the GTA, and that could be their undoing.

WATCH: Majority or minority, what kind of government will Ontario get on June 7?

1:40 Majority or minority, what kind of government will Ontario get on June 7?

That 905 and GTA are the motherlode for Ontario elections; whichever party controls those voter-rich areas, usually forms the government.

The number crunchers tell us that while the NDP will likely hold onto the seats they already have in that area, it doesn’t look as if they can steal seats from the PCs and Liberals.

The NDP could win the popular vote next Thursday, but not win enough seats to form a government; they could win the battle, but lose the war.

But if we’ve learned anything in this “change” election, it’s that things can change, not just from day to day, but from minute to minute.

Bill Kelly is the host of the Bill Kelly Show on Global News Radio 900 CHML.